24_12W3 - amoon.world🌙

![[Pasted image 20241219140145.png|800]] 🗄️🌱🦅🐠 | Definition | Hammer | | Toyota Lean (Adaptation) | Jeep/SUV (Co-opted Adaptation) | Tesla EV/Home Battery (Co-opted Adaptation) | Prehistoric Fire Control (Co-opted Nonadaptation) | Moderna (Co-opted Nonadaptation) | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Building blocks that exist independently of specific use | Handle, iron head, joining mechanism | Elements | Assembly line layout, standardized methods | Rugged chassis, durable body | EV battery systems, grid connection hardware | Naturally occurring fire, containment materials | mRNA platform technology, digital analytics | | Capabilities or services derived from elements | Nailing, prying | Functions | Production quality → Better Production quality | Military mobility → Civilian utility | EV only → EV & Home backup | No cooking → Cooking | No vaccines → Rapid vaccine pivoting | | Unfulfilled requirement | Securely join or separate materials | Need | Lower costs, consistent quality | Versatility, comfort | Home energy independence, backup power | Safe food, protection from cold | Rapid response to emerging health threats | | Viable pairing between needs and specific configuration of elements+functions | A hammer design that combines handle, iron head, and joining mechanism to enable nailing and prying, thereby addressing the need to join or separate materials efficiently. | Solution | A lean manufacturing system that integrates assembly line layout and work standardization to improve throughput and quality, thereby addressing the need for lower costs and consistent output. | An SUV configuration that combines a rugged chassis and durable body to enable all-terrain mobility and comfortable civilian transport, thereby addressing the need for versatile, family-friendly off-road travel. | An integrated EV-home energy solution that employs EV battery systems and grid connection hardware to provide energy storage and backup power, thereby addressing the need for home energy independence and security. | A flexible R&D platform that uses mRNA technology and digital analytics to enable rapid vaccine prototyping and swift pivoting, thereby addressing the need to respond quickly to emerging health threats. | An mRNA-based R&D platform using digital analytics for rapid, adaptive vaccine development | 🗄️💊 | Environment Uncertainty | Search Strategy | Evolutionary Pattern | Key Characteristics | Example (Intentional/Unintentional) | Process of implementing P(E, F, N) (E: element, F: function, N: need) | | ------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Low (established market) | Element Push: Improve known elements | Adaptation | Incremental refinement of existing solutions | Toyota Lean (I): Iterative improvements with clear metrics in a stable market | P(E)·P(F\|E)·P(N\|F) approximating P(N\|F,E) with P(N\|F) | | Low (Clear need, bounded solution space | Need Pull: Start from known need | Adaptation | Systematic search for solutions that fit a known need | Early EV Batteries (I/U): Searching among known battery technologies for reliable energy storage | P(N)·P(F\|N)·P(E\|F) approximating P(E\|F,N) with P(E\|F) | | Medium (Known functions, emerging opportunities) | Function Exposure: Place known functions in new contexts | Co-opted Adaptation | Existing capabilities branch out into related uses | Jeep→SUV (U): Military off-road capability adapted to civilian family travel Tesla EV→Home Battery (I): Vehicle energy storage adapted to home backup Rolling Suitcase (U): Factory wheels adapted for personal luggage | P(F)·P(E,N\|F) | | High (no defined market) | Function Elicitation: Explore broadly for new functions | Co-Opted Nonadaptation | New functions emerge by recombining previously unused elements | Moderna (I): Parallel R&D creating novel therapies from flexible mRNA platform Prehistoric Fire Control (U): Natural fire combined with shelter/fuel to create cooking/warmth functions | P(N,E)·P(F\|N,E) | | | | | | | | | Environment Uncertainty | Search Strategy | Evolutionary Pattern | Process Implementation (vs Double Diamond) | Key Value Beyond Sequential | Example Cases (I/U) | | -------------------------------- | ------------------------- | -------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Low (existing need, solution) | Element Push or Need Pull | Direct Adaptation | P(E)·P(F\|E)·P(N\|F) or P(N)·P(F\|N)·P(E\|F) 🎯Matches double diamond sequential process | - Validates double diamond - Efficient for known spaces - Low dimensional loss | Toyota Lean (I): Sequential refinement Tesla Battery (I): Iterative improvement | | Medium (mixed new/existing) | Function Exposure | Co-opted Adaptation | P(F)·P(E,N\|F) 🎯Richer than double diamond's function-first approach | - Captures parallel possibilities - Reduces information loss - Allows bidirectional discovery | Tesla EV→Powerwall (I): Battery tech to home Jeep→SUV (U): Military to civilian | | High (new need, solution) | Function Elicitation | Co-opted Nonaptation | P(N,E)·P(F\|N,E) 🎯Beyond double diamond: embraces full E-N coupling | - Exploits "magnetic field" - 2x wider discovery net - Enables unexpected functions | BYD Blade Battery (I): Structural breakthrough Fire Control (U): E-N emergence | **Key Implementation Notes:** 1. 💠 At low uncertainty: Sequential processes work well, minimal information loss 2. 🧲 At medium uncertainty: Need broader view to capture parallel possibilities 3. 🥅 At high uncertainty: Must embrace full E-N space to enable breakthroughs | Environment Uncertainty | Search Strategy | Evolutionary Pattern | Process of Implementation | Key Characteristics | Example Cases | | ------------------------------- | ------------------------- | -------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Low (established market) | Element Push or Need Pull | Direct Adaptation | P(E)·P(F\|E)·P(N\|F) or P(N)·P(F\|N)·P(E\|F) Start with existing elements, refine their functions, validate against needs or 🚨 | - Sequential improvement - Clear metrics - Focused optimization - Known need and element's potential solution space | Toyota Lean (I): Systematic production refinement Tesla Battery (I): Sequential efficiency improvements | | Medium (emerging opportunities) | Function Exposure | Co-opted Adaptation | P(F)·P(E,N\|F) Start with proven functions, explore new contexts and needs | - Branch existing capabilities - Structured exploration - Parallel refinement - Known starting point | Tesla EV→Powerwall (I): Battery tech to home storage Jeep→SUV (U): Military to civilian adaptation | | High (undefined market) | Function Elicitation | Co-opted Nonaptation | P(N,E)·P(F\|N,E) Explore needs and elements in parallel, discover new functions | - Multiple parallel paths - Novel combinations - Unexpected discoveries - Open exploration | BYD Blade Battery (I): Structural innovation Moderna mRNA (I): Platform exploration | | Environment Uncertainty | Search Strategy | Evolutionary Pattern | Process of Implementation | Key Characteristics | Example Cases (Intentional (I), Unintentional (U)) | Probability measure construction (using exchangeability) | | ------------------------------------------ | ------------------------- | -------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | Low existing need, existing solution | Element Push or Need Pull | Direct Adaptation | Sequential refinement: Elements → Functions → Needs OR Needs → Functions → Elements Focus on known relationships | - Sequential improvement - Clear metrics - Known relationships between E-F-N - Optimization within established paths - Learning through feedback loops | Toyota Lean (I): Production refinement through known E-F-N links Tesla Battery (I): Iterative improvements based on clear needs | P(E)·P(F\|E)·P(N\|F) or P(N)·P(F\|N)·P(E\|F) | | Medium existing need, new solution | Function Exposure | Co-opted Adaptation | Start with proven functions, then explore new E-F combinations | - Branch existing capabilities - Structured exploration - Discovery of new relationships - Balance between known/unknown - Parallel development paths | Tesla EV→Powerwall (I): Known function finding new needs Jeep→SUV (U): Military function finding civilian needs | P(F)·P(E,N\|F) | | Medium existing solution, new need | Function Exposure | Co-opted Adaptation | Start with proven functions, then explore new N-F relationships | | | | | High new solution, new need | Function Elicitation | Co-opted Nonaptation | Open exploration of E-N space: - Parallel exploration of elements - Discovery of emerging needs - Allow new functions to emerge from E-N combinations | - Multiple parallel paths - Novel element combinations - Need discovery through existence - Emergent functions - Learning through experimentation | BYD Blade Battery (I): New function from structural elements Fire Control (U): Function emerged from E-N interaction | P(N,E)·P(F\|N,E) | | Environment Uncertainty | Search/Sampling Strategy Prescription | Process of implementing P(E, F, N) (E: element, F: function, N: need) | Evolutionary Pattern | Key Characteristics | Both Intentional (I) /Unintentional (U) e.g. | | ----------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Low uncertainty, clear performance metrics, established market | Element Push: Start from known elements, sequentially improve | P(E)·P(F\|E)·P(N\|F) approximating P(N\|F,E) with P(N\|F) | Adaptation | Sequential refinement of elements for defined function | Toyota Lean (I): Iteratively improving manufacturing process with clear metrics, kaizen, standardized work, and established market | | Clear market need, solution space uncertain but bounded | Need Pull: Start from clear need, search known solution space | P(N)·P(F\|N)·P(E\|F) approximating P(E\|F,N) with P(E\|F) | Adaptation | Sequential search within bounded solution space | Early EV batteries: Clear need for energy storage, searching among known battery technologies | | Medium Known function capabilities, emerging market opportunities | Function Exposure: Expose existing functional elements to new environments/contexts, fishing for new needs | P(F)·P(E,N\|F) | Co-opted Adaptation | Existing functions branch into new domains through environmental changes | Jeep/SUV (U):Military rugged transport function branched into civilian family transport domain while maintaining core off-road capability Tesla EV battery/Home battery (?): Vehicle energy storage function branched into home power backup domain while maintaining vehicle applications (commensurable two applications given battery capability) Sadow's Rolling Suitcase (U): Factory wheeled transport function branched into luggage domain while maintaining core transport capability | | High uncertainty, rich element space, undefined market needs | Function Elicitation: parallel exploration in element-need joint space, fishing for new functions | P(N,E)·P(F\|N,E) | Co-opted Nonadaptation | New functions emerge from recombining initially non-functional elements | Moderna (I): Parallel pursuit of multiple therapeutic targets and rapid pivoting when new data emerges, discovering new vaccine/drug functions from a flexible mRNA platform Prehistoric Fire Contro (U): Combining naturally occurring elements (fire, fuel, shelter) to create entirely new cooking/heating functions | ## comparison with current double diamond 🚨🚨 summarize transcript: - Double diamond diagrams show current sequential approaches (4 variations shown) - 3D diagrams (E,N,F axes) show richer possibility space - Sequential approaches constrain movement to specific paths ## when exaptation better than adaptation? 💠❖1. Dimensional Reduction Loss: - Current frameworks like double diamond reduce P(E,F,N) to lower dimensions by conditioning - This creates information loss by forcing sequential dependencies - The full joint distribution P(E,F,N) captures more possibilities than conditional probabilities P(N|F,E) or P(F|E,N) 🧲🧭2. Magnetic Field Analogy: - P(E,N) having a "strong magnetic field" suggests strong coupling between needs and elements - This coupling creates a force that can pull solutions in unexpected directions - The magnetic field metaphor helps explain why rigid sequential processes may miss opportunities 🥅🍀 3. twice wider net Exchangeability Given Function: - P(E,N|F) ~ P(N,E|F) means order doesn't matter when discovering functions - Whether you start from need or element, function discovery follows same probability - This exchangeability doubles the chances of useful discoveries compared to fixed sequences