# Class 11: Supply Chain Resilience (⏰) *Aug 7, 2025 | [Transcript](./🦦/11⏰2RS_15778_intro_ops_otter_ai.md)* ## 🎯 Teaching Arc **Hook**: "Nokia survived, Ericsson failed - same fire, different outcomes" **Puzzle**: Phillips semiconductor fire affected both - why different impacts? **Resolution**: ⭐️Time to survive > Time to recovery = survive **Model**: Impact × Recovery Time × Probability (order by PI when TTS>TTR) ## 🗣️ Quality Participation **[Student]**: "Alternative suppliers matter" - Prof: "I like where your head's at" - Impact: Led to multi-sourcing discussion **Key Discussion**: ⭐️HIGH IMPACT, NO MONEY suppliers - Prof: "Exactly - low-cost suppliers can cripple you" - Insight: Semiconductor makers = high risk despite low spend ## 📊 Quick Scores **Track professor's cues**: "exactly", "I like that", "good point" **Focus on**: Students who identify non-obvious risks ## 🔗 421 Diagram ### Nokia's Resilience ``` 🟢 Supply visibility 🟣 Continuity need Multi-sourcing Reliability \ / Coordinate ←→ Compel / \ 🟠 Min disruption 🔴 Stable supply Quick recovery Customer trust ``` ### Risk Framework ``` 🟢 Map suppliers 🟣 Business continuity Know TTR Zero disruption \ / Coordinate ←→ Compel / \ 🟠 ⭐️Assume recovery 🔴 Risk transparency Invest flexibility Supply assurance ``` ## 📚 Exam Essentials **Concepts**: - ⭐️Proactive (map TTR, TTS, PI) > Reactive (culture) - Focus on high impact + low visibility suppliers - Design flexibility where it matters **Strategy**: 1. Map impact as function of recovery time 2. When TTS < TTR → invest in flexibility 3. Order interventions by probability × impact **Key Table**: Product/Supplier matrix showing safety stock duration **Traps**: ❌"Focus on high-spend suppliers" ✅"Map by impact, not spend" ## 🎓 Recitation Points - "2015 data revealed low-cost = high-risk suppliers" - "Nokia's advantage: knew suppliers' suppliers" - "Resilience investment: where TTS < TTR" - ⭐️"Underestimate negative tail, overestimate positive tail" --- *Previous: [Amazon Supply Chain](./10🚚_Amazon_Supply_Chain.md)*