🎲ae(uncertainty) - amoon.world🌙

synthesizing abstract, [[🗄️📜🌱🦅🐠]], [[📜Ulrich20_pd_des_dev]] | ![[prescription.png\|100]] | Type | Solution | Need/Market | Testing vs Choice | Loop Investment | Example | 👆choosing/⚖️testing | Strategy | | --------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | | Horizon 3 Opportunities | | | | | | | | | | | New-category Products and Services | New solution | New need/market | Testing/Choice = 0.1/0 = $\inftylt;br>(Can't test yet) | Build consideration set 🚨 | mRNA technology pre-COVID 🚨 | ∞👆/⚖️ High 🧲🎨/⚗️ 🐠Co-opted nonaptation | Develop core capability before testing | | Horizon 3 $\rightarrow$ 2 Opportunities | | | | | | | | | | | 🔵Exploration with New Solutions/Approaches $\rightarrowlt;br>Next Generation Products and Services for Core Markets | New solution $\rightarrowlt;br>Existing solution | Existing need/market not addressed | 1 $\leq$ Testing/Choice lt; \infty$ (Test multiple options from considerate set) | ⚗️ loop-focus (Solution development) | Cancer drug | Low👆/⚖️ Low 🧲🎨/⚗️ 🦅Co-opted adaptation | | | | 🔴Exploration into New Markets $\rightarrowlt;br>Next Generation Products and Services for Core Markets | Existing solution | New need/market $\rightarrowlt;br>existing need/market | 1 $\leq$ Testing/Choice lt; \infty$ (Test multiple options from considerate set) | 🎨 loop-focus (Need exploration) | Tesla battery finding new markets | High 👆/⚖️ High 🧲🎨/⚗️ 🦅Co-opted adaptation Market exploration with proven tech | | | | 🟣Poorly Served Need + Not Used Solution $\rightarrowlt;br>Known Need, Known Solution | Existing solution not used $\rightarrow$ Existing solution used | Existing need/market not addressed $\rightarrow$ Existing need/market served | 1 $\leq$ Testing/Choice lt; \infty$ (Test multiple options from considerate set) | balanced🎨⚗️🧲 loop | BYD adapting to EU market 🚨 | Medium👆/⚖️ Balanced 🧲🎨/⚗️ | Systematic exploration of both needs & solutions | | Horizon 2 $\rightarrow$ 1 Opportunities | | | | | | | | | | | Known Need, Known Solution (Improvements, Extensions, Variants, and Cost Reductions) | Existing solution currently used | Existing need/market currently served | Testing/Choice = 0/1 = 0 (No testing needed, just choose) | No loop | Ice cream scoop for existing market | Low👆/⚖️ (≈0) Low 🧲🎨/⚗️ 🌱Direct-adaptation | Direct implementation | ---- ## Pattern Definitions & Characteristics ### 🌱 Direct Adaptation - **Probability Structure**: Non-exchangeable - **Process**: Sequential optimization - **Focus**: Improving existing functions step by step - **Example**: Ford assembly line optimization - **Horizon Application**: Best for H2→1 when clear path exists - **Decision Process**: Sequential improvement based on known parameters ### 🦅 Co-opted Adaptation - **Probability Structure**: Partially exchangeable - **Process**: Dual-purpose enhancement - **Focus**: Adding new functions while maintaining original purpose - **Example**: Tesla Powerwall (battery tech serving multiple markets) - **Decision Process**: Parallel exploration with maintained core function ### 🐠 Co-opted Nonaptation - **Probability Structure**: Fully exchangeable - **Process**: Novel combination creation - **Focus**: Generating new functionalities through unrelated combinations - **Example**: BYD Blade Battery (structural innovations leading to unexpected advantages) - **Decision Process**: Exploration of unrelated combinations ## Revised Horizon Mapping | Horizon | Primary Pattern(s) | Why This Pattern | Uncertainty Management | | ------- | ------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | H3 | 🐠 Co-opted Nonaptation 🦅 Co-opted Adaptation | • Full exchangeability enables novel discoveries • Partial exchangeability allows controlled exploration | • Manage high aleatoric uncertainty through parallel exploration • Enable structural byproducts to emerge | | H3→2 | 🦅 Co-opted Adaptation | • Partial exchangeability balances exploration and existing knowledge • Maintains core functions while exploring new applications | • Balance between known and unknown • Systematic exploration of new applications | | H2→1 | 🌱 Direct Adaptation | • Non-exchangeability supports sequential optimization • Clear path for improvements | • Focus on epistemic uncertainty reduction • Sequential optimization | ## Key Corrections to Previous Analysis: 1. **Pattern Independence** - Patterns are not strictly tied to horizon levels - Multiple patterns can coexist within same horizon - Pattern choice depends on probability structure more than horizon level 2. **Decision Process Focus** - Emphasis on probability structures (exchangeability) - Balance between exploration and exploitation based on exchangeability type - Recognition of structural byproducts' role 3. **Uncertainty Management** - Aleatoric uncertainty managed through exchangeability approach - Epistemic uncertainty reduced through appropriate pattern selection - Patterns can be mixed based on uncertainty type ## Strategic Implications: 1. **Pattern Selection** - Choose based on probability structure, not just horizon level - Consider multiple patterns when appropriate - Allow for emergence of structural byproducts 2. **Implementation** - Design processes that match exchangeability type - Enable appropriate exploration based on pattern - Balance maintained functions with new applications 3. **Risk Management** - Align risk approach with exchangeability type - Enable appropriate parallel exploration - Maintain flexibility for structural innovations # Innovation Horizons: Uncertainty & Examples Integration | Horizon Level | Uncertainty Profile | Examples | Key Uncertainty Learning | | ------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **H3** Pure Innovation | • Highest aleatoric uncertainty • "Natural randomness" dominates • Unpredictable theoretical outcomes | • mRNA technology pre-COVID • Pasteur's petri dish enabling parallel observation of mutations • Need to cast wide net for random opportunities | When theory can't predict outcomes, parallel exploration becomes crucial | | **H3→2** Solution Innovation | • High technical aleatoric uncertainty • Some epistemic uncertainty in solution space | • Cancer drug development • Moderna's parallel discovery approach • SpaceX running multiple prototype tests | Multiple parallel attempts help capture random technical breakthroughs | | **H3→2** Market Innovation | • Market aleatoric uncertainty • Solution epistemic uncertainty | • Tesla batteries finding new markets • Porsche's brand value transfer to EV market (digital morphological byproduct) | Known solutions can have unexpected market applications | | **H3→2** Adaptation | • Balanced aleatoric/epistemic mix • Uncertainty in fit rather than components | • BYD adapting to EU market • BYD's battery design revealing unexpected manufacturing advantages (physical morphological byproduct) | Integration can reveal unexpected advantages in manufacturing or market fit | | **H2→1** Optimization | • Mainly epistemic uncertainty • Measureable and predictable variations | • Ice cream scoop improvements • Multiple RFI/RFQ/RFP with suppliers | When uncertainty is mainly epistemic, direct testing and implementation work well | ## Key Integration Points: 1. **Aleatoric vs Epistemic Balance** - Higher horizons: More aleatoric (random) uncertainty → need parallel approaches - Lower horizons: More epistemic (knowable) uncertainty → direct testing works 2. **Morphological Byproducts** - Physical: Unexpected technical advantages (e.g., BYD manufacturing) - Digital: Market value transfer opportunities (e.g., Porsche brand) 3. **Example Patterns** - Higher uncertainty → More parallel attempts (Moderna, SpaceX) - Known solution/New market → Brand/value transfer opportunities (Tesla, Porsche) - Adaptation phase → Manufacturing/Integration advantages (BYD) # Innovation Horizons Framework | Horizon Level | Pattern | Current State | Challenge Level | Testing Approach | Learning Loop Focus | Example | Key Strategy | |--------------|---------|---------------|-----------------|-----------------|-------------------|----------|--------------| | **Horizon 3** (Pure Innovation) | New Category Creation | • Solution: None exists yet • Market: Unexplored need | 🔴 Highest Both solution & need unknown | No testing possible yet (∞ ratio) | Build initial prototypes Develop core capabilities | mRNA technology pre-COVID | Focus on capability building before testing | | **Horizon 3→2** (Solution Innovation) | New Solution Exploration | • Solution: Being developed • Market: Known unmet need | 🟡 High solution uncertainty | Multiple tests needed (Test several prototypes) | 🧪 Solution development loop (Focus on technical validation) | Cancer drug development | Iterative prototyping and technical validation | | **Horizon 3→2** (Market Innovation) | Market Exploration | • Solution: Proven exists • Market: New territory | 🟡 High market uncertainty | Multiple tests needed (Test several markets) | 🎯 Market exploration loop (Focus on user/market fit) | Tesla batteries in new markets | Systematic market testing with proven tech | | **Horizon 3→2** (Adaptation) | Market-Solution Fit | • Solution: Exists but unused • Market: Underserved | 🟢 Moderate uncertainty | Balanced testing (Test fit & adaptations) | 🔄 Balanced loops (Both market & solution) | BYD adapting to EU market | Systematic exploration of both needs & solutions | | **Horizon 2→1** (Optimization) | Known Solution & Need | • Solution: In active use • Market: Currently served | ⚪ Lowest Both known | Direct implementation (No testing needed) | No major loops needed (Incremental improvements) | Ice cream scoop improvements | Direct implementation with minor refinements | Key Indicators: - Challenge Level: 🔴 Highest → 🟡 High → 🟢 Moderate → ⚪ Lowest - Testing Need: ∞ (impossible) → Multiple → Balanced → None - Learning Focus: Capability Building → Solution/Market Validation → Optimization --- | Cell Position | Uncertainty Ratios | Testing vs Choice | Loop Investment | Example | Strategy | | -------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | | Known Need, Known Solution | Low 🎨⚗️/🧲 (≈0) Low 🧲🎨/⚗️ | Testing/Choice = 0/1 (Just choose) | Minimal loops needed | Ice cream scoop for existing market | Direct implementation - needs and solution clear | | Unknown Need, Known Solution | High 🎨⚗️/🧲 High 🧲🎨/⚗️ | Testing/Choice = 1 (Test all options) | Heavy 🎨 loop (Need exploration) | Tesla battery finding new markets | Market exploration with proven tech | | Poorly Served Need + Not Used Solution | Medium 🎨⚗️/🧲 Balanced 🧲🎨/⚗️ | Testing/Choice = 2/1 (Test multiple options) | All loops needed: 🎨, 🧲, ⚗️ | BYD adapting to EU market | Systematic exploration of both needs & solutions | | Known Need, Unknown Solution | Low 🎨⚗️/🧲 Low 🧲🎨/⚗️ | Testing/Choice = 2 (Heavy solution testing) | Heavy ⚗️ loop (Solution development) | Pharma developing new drug for known disease | Deep technical experimentation | | Unknown Need, Unknown Solution | ∞ (🎨⚗️/🧲 undefined) High 🧲🎨/⚗️ | Testing/Choice = 0/0 (Can't test yet) | Build consideration set first | mRNA technology pre-COVID | Develop core capability before testing | Key insights: - High 🎨⚗️/🧲: More testing needed as unknowable uncertainty dominates - High 🧲🎨/⚗️: More need-side exploration required - Balance of all three (🎨,⚗️,🧲) determines optimal strategy - Lower values suggest more direct action possible - Higher values require more exploration/testing loops Key insights: - High 🎨⚗️/🧲: More testing needed as unknowable uncertainty dominates - High 🧲🎨/⚗️: More need-side exploration required - Balance of all three (🎨,⚗️,🧲) determines optimal strategy - Lower values suggest more direct action possible - Higher values require more exploration/testing loops [[📜Ulrich20_pd_des_dev]] | ![[prescription.png\|100]] | Type | Solution | Need/Market | Testing vs Choice | Loop Investment | Example | 👆choosing/⚖️testing | Strategy | | --------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | | Horizon 3 Opportunities | | | | | | | | | | | New-category Products and Services | New solution | New need/market | Testing/Choice = 0.1/0 = $\inftylt;br>(Can't test yet) | Build consideration set 🚨 | mRNA technology pre-COVID 🚨 | ∞👆/⚖️ High 🧲🎨/⚗️ 🐠Co-opted nonaptation | Develop core capability before testing | | Horizon 3 $\rightarrow$ 2 Opportunities | | | | | | | | | | | 🔵Exploration with New Solutions/Approaches $\rightarrowlt;br>Next Generation Products and Services for Core Markets | New solution $\rightarrowlt;br>Existing solution | Existing need/market not addressed | 1 $\leq$ Testing/Choice lt; \infty$ (Test multiple options from considerate set) | ⚗️ loop-focus (Solution development) | Cancer drug | Low👆/⚖️ Low 🧲🎨/⚗️ 🦅Co-opted adaptation | | | | 🔴Exploration into New Markets $\rightarrowlt;br>Next Generation Products and Services for Core Markets | Existing solution | New need/market $\rightarrowlt;br>existing need/market | 1 $\leq$ Testing/Choice lt; \infty$ (Test multiple options from considerate set) | 🎨 loop-focus (Need exploration) | Tesla battery finding new markets | High 👆/⚖️ High 🧲🎨/⚗️ 🦅Co-opted adaptation Market exploration with proven tech | | | | 🟣Poorly Served Need + Not Used Solution $\rightarrowlt;br>Known Need, Known Solution | Existing solution not used $\rightarrow$ Existing solution used | Existing need/market not addressed $\rightarrow$ Existing need/market served | 1 $\leq$ Testing/Choice lt; \infty$ (Test multiple options from considerate set) | balanced🎨⚗️🧲 loop | BYD adapting to EU market 🚨 | Medium👆/⚖️ Balanced 🧲🎨/⚗️ | Systematic exploration of both needs & solutions | | Horizon 2 $\rightarrow$ 1 Opportunities | | | | | | | | | | | Known Need, Known Solution (Improvements, Extensions, Variants, and Cost Reductions) | Existing solution currently used | Existing need/market currently served | Testing/Choice = 0/1 = 0 (No testing needed, just choose) | No loop | Ice cream scoop for existing market | Low👆/⚖️ (≈0) Low 🧲🎨/⚗️ 🌱Direct-adaptation | Direct implementation | # Innovation Horizons Framework | Horizon Level | Pattern | Current State | Challenge Level | Testing Approach | Learning Loop Focus | Example | Key Strategy | | ---------------------------------------- | ------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------ | | **Horizon 3** (Pure Innovation) | New Category Creation | • Solution: None exists yet • Market: Unexplored need | 🔴 Highest Both solution & need unknown | No testing possible yet (∞ ratio) | Build initial prototypes Develop core capabilities | mRNA technology pre-COVID | Focus on capability building before testing | | **Horizon 3→2** (Solution Innovation) | New Solution Exploration | • Solution: Being developed • Market: Known unmet need | 🟡 High solution uncertainty | Multiple tests needed (Test several prototypes) | 🧪 Solution development loop (Focus on technical validation) | Cancer drug development | Iterative prototyping and technical validation | | **Horizon 3→2** (Market Innovation) | Market Exploration | • Solution: Proven exists • Market: New territory | 🟡 High market uncertainty | Multiple tests needed (Test several markets) | 🎯 Market exploration loop (Focus on user/market fit) | Tesla batteries in new markets | Systematic market testing with proven tech | | **Horizon 3→2** (Adaptation) | Market-Solution Fit | • Solution: Exists but unused • Market: Underserved | 🟢 Moderate uncertainty | Balanced testing (Test fit & adaptations) | 🔄 Balanced loops (Both market & solution) | BYD adapting to EU market | Systematic exploration of both needs & solutions | | **Horizon 2→1** (Optimization) | Known Solution & Need | • Solution: In active use • Market: Currently served | ⚪ Lowest Both known | Direct implementation (No testing needed) | No major loops needed (Incremental improvements) | Ice cream scoop improvements | Direct implementation with minor refinements | Key Indicators: - Challenge Level: 🔴 Highest → 🟡 High → 🟢 Moderate → ⚪ Lowest - Testing Need: ∞ (impossible) → Multiple → Balanced → None - Learning Focus: Capability Building → Solution/Market Validation → Optimization horizon3: co-opted nonaption, horizon2: co-opted adaptation, horizon1: adaptation. [[🗄️🪶product2_TAP]]