behavior science, ai, mobility social mobility and ai ![[Pasted image 20230908071255.png]] leveraging time perception in entrepreneurship room temperature, desired - capitalization conversation between tool builder, idea: bayes in sd pd/commercialization: vensim_v11 customer_demand: atom_supply: benefit of atom (distribute channel) C: seminar audience A: - produce: vensim developers - distribute: installed base of models and education (e.g. SD teachers around the world), Vensim manual (ui/ux. - https://mc-stan.org/docs/stan-users-guide/index.html) - sell: B macro and cookbook C1_segment 1. **Are you selling into a beachhead market?** yes to many (e.g. academic market (size??), other small markets(don't have specific market focus??)) 2. **Is the beachhead market saturated?** everyone is vensim and stella users (double ) ![[Pasted image 20230908160718.png]] 3. **Expand to an adjacent market.** - 1. replacing spreadsheet (1% excel) 2. datascience (e.g.bayes community) Tool A1_Processify 1. **Execute the process. Does it work well enough?** - Yes: Move to step 2. - No: Tweak the process and return to step 1. (NO) 2. **Standardize the process.** (need to establish testing process, sales process) datastructure and ingest (sample .tab and get into pandas df) ### Tool B1_Professionalize 1. **Observe organizational performance. Any failures or shortcomings?** - Yes: Move to step (YES), No: Continue with current team and processes. 2. **Diagnose the organizational deficiency.** - Identified: Move to step (other tools like probablistic program (ice sheet with MCMC) had better way of getting confidence interval) / not too much customer in the market (latent demand - sth they think they need is not actually needed) - resource allocation stuck in local opt. 3. **Hire a professional to address the deficiency.** - Successful: Return to step 1 to observe new performance. ### Tool B2_Collaborate 1. **Do you have potential partners in the value chain?** - Yes: Move to step 2. - No: Build internal capabilities. (Stella is the same place in the value chain) 2. **Can you share value without losing competitive advantage?** - Yes: Establish a collaboration. - No: Reevaluate potential partners. (other consulting companies - sell tools / making the platform open enough to use other tools e.g. python, SDEverywhere? for this Tom used yellow: tool, blue: standard (file format)) 3. ![[Pasted image 20230908162411.png]] ### Tool A2_Automate 1. **Do you have a well-defined process for a task?** - Yes: Move to step 2. - [-] No: Work on task standardization. 2. **Is the process predictable and debugged?** - Yes: Move to step 3. - [-] No: Refine and debug the process. 1. **Do you have metrics to measure the process?** - [-] Yes: Move to step 4. (regression set for vensim, macro, -- we need manufacturing, sales, hr, ) - No: Establish relevant metrics. 2. **Is there a process owner?** - [-] Yes: Automate the process. (Tony kennedy vensim_v11 o) - No: Assign a process owner and then automate. ### Tool B3_Acculturate 1. **Do you have a defined company culture?** - Yes: Move to step 2. - No: Define and communicate culture. 2. **Is the culture being maintained during scaling?** - Yes: Continue scaling. - No: Reinforce culture through regular communication. ### Tool A3_Platformize 1. **Does your business model allow for a platform structure?** - Yes: Move to step 2. - No: Focus on product excellence. 2. **Can you serve multiple customer segments?** - Yes: Build a platform to cross economies of scale. - No: Reevaluate the business model. ### Tool A4_Replicate 1. **Is your process refined and documented?** - Yes: Move to step 2. - No: Refine and document the process. 2. **Can the process be replicated in different locations or settings?** - Yes: Move to step 3. - No: Make necessary modifications. 3. **Replicate the process and measure outcomes.** - Successful: Continue replication. - Unsuccessful: Reevaluate and modify. ### Tool A5_Capitalize 1. **Do you need significant capital to scale?** - Yes: Move to step 2. - No: Use existing resources to scale. 2. **Are you willing to give up control for capital?** - Yes: Seek external investment. - No: Explore bootstrapping or slower growth. ### Tool C2_Evaluate 1. **Do you have set milestones and KPIs?** - Yes: Move to step 2. - No: Establish milestones and KPIs. 2. **Are you meeting your milestones and KPIs?** - Yes: Continue scaling. - No: Identify problems and adjust strategy.