### Final Grade & Feedback Q1: 15/15 Q2: 15/15 Q3: 15/15 Q4: 10/15 [No quantitative example provided] Q5: 10/10 Bonus: 0/10 [Only censoring mentioned, no distribution assumption] **Total: 60/80** --- Learning Team Beaver Introduction to Operations Management 15.778_SU25 Member: Ifeoluwa Dare-Johnson Luis Felipe Rosas Antipa Norman Yasa Perdana Ryo Kadono Stuart Grimshaw Yedioth Case Analysis Report Q1. In the current distribution model, each retailer is supplied once, independently of all other retailers. What would be a good method to compute the quantity shipped to each retailer if one wishes to guarantee that 99% of customers will be served? Apply your approach to compute recommended quantities to the 50 retailers (explain the methodology in the body of the report and provide the results in appendix). A. Compute the mean sales quantity (μ) and the weekly standard deviation (σ) of each retailer. Get 99% guaranteed quantity with the equation below, and P_stock 99% = k=2.33. q*= μ+2.33σ Total q* = 419 🚨correct ~419🚨 *See Appendix 1 below for the results for each retailer. *We didn’t consider the sell-throughs on the original data with presuming that sell-through rates are low and that unmet demand has been largely addressed. Q2. If Yedioth could implement full pooling among all of the 50 retailers what would be the estimated benefit in terms of total production levels and returns (assume that the required service level is 99%). Note: Full pooling means that somehow all of the retailers could be supplied in real time from the same pool of inventory. A. Compute the average sales of each week across the 50 retailers. See Appendix 2. Calculate the mean and standard deviation. Mean 189.6 STD 20.0 Q* 236.0 Q* Roundup 236 Get the delta between the result of Q1 and above, which means the estimated benefit in terms of total production level and returns from the full pooling. Learning Team Beaver Introduction to Operations Management 15.778_SU25 Estimated benefit from the full pooling (Reduction amount) = (Total quantity from individual model (Q1) ) – (Total quantity from pooled model (Q2) ) = 419 – 236 = 183 copies per week 🚨correct pooling calculation🚨 For the expected return, we observe the reduction from the original data; Proposed weekly order amount: 236 - Average weekly sales: 190 = Expected return: 46 Mean of weekly return in original data: 103 – Expected return above: 46 = Expected return reduction: 57 Q3. Suppose that one could implement full pooling only among retailers that are treated by the same sales agent, what would be the potential benefit in terms of production levels and returns (assume 99% service level). Compare to 2) above. A. Follow the same steps as the answer to Q2 above, but for each sales agent. See the result below: Sales Agent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total Sales 1032.0 728.0 589.0 810.0 1290.0 1020.0 516.0 720.0 1287.0 729.0 Weekly Average Sales 22.4 15.8 12.8 17.6 28.0 22.2 11.2 15.7 28.0 15.8 STD 5.1 3.9 2.8 3.3 6.3 4.3 2.5 3.3 5.6 4.1 Q 34.4 25.0 19.3 25.4 42.8 32.1 17.0 23.3 41.1 25.3 Total Q Roundup 35 25 20 26 43 33 17 24 42 26 291 Comparing to the answer to Q2 above, 291-236=55 copies/week less benefit, but still much better 🚨acceptable agent pooling🚨 than original “no pooling” situation, 419 copies/week. For the expected return, we still observe the reduction from the original data; Proposed weekly order amount: 291 - Average weekly sales: 190 = Expected return: 101 Mean of weekly return in original data: 103 – Expected return above: 101 = Expected return reduction: 2 Learning Team Beaver Introduction to Operations Management 15.778_SU25 Q4. Propose more realistic policies that leverage the fact that the sales agent visits each retailer in the middle of the week. What would the benefit be of these policies? A. 1. Mid-Week Replenishment Policy: Use Wednesday visits to physically replenish inventory based on sales so far. This would require logistics capability but would reduce initial overstocking and returns. We could consider that the sales agents can carry additional inventory on Wednesday, needs planning and logistics support, and could start with large retailers first. 2. Split Delivery Strategy (50/50): Send only ~50–70% of expected demand on Sunday. On Wednesday, use actual sales data to decide how much more to deliver. This will result reducing returns due to more accurate replenishment and avoiding stockouts in highdemand weeks. 3. Experimenting for future weeks: Yedioth can run small experiments to better understand the true demand of specific retailers by temporarily oversupplying those who frequently sell out. By ensuring these stores do not run out of stock for a few weeks and tracking their daily sales, the company can observe how many magazines would have been sold if inventory had been unlimited. This helps uncover lost sales that are hidden under current stockout conditions. The insights gained from these experiments can improve forecasting accuracy, reduce unnecessary overstocking elsewhere, and guide smarter midweek replenishment decisions—all without requiring a full system overhaul. The second visit in the middle of the week allows Yedioth to capture real demand more accurately in real time and test how responsive resupply can reduce lost sales, making the experiment both practical and insightful for improving future forecasts. 🚨specific mechanisms proposed🚨 Q5. What do you think are the organizational challenges that Assaf will have to address? A. 1. Resistance to Change from the Research Department: The Research Department is responsible for setting shipment levels. They are used to conservative, overstocking-based forecasts. Changing to a pooled or adaptive system may be perceived as risky or disruptive. 2. Sales Agent Incentive Misalignment: Sales agents are compensated based on sales volume. Reducing initial shipments or experimenting with new models may make them fear reduced earnings or performance penalties. 3. Lack of IT Infrastructure and Real-Time Data Sharing: Most small retailers do not have EDI or POS systems. Implementing dynamic inventory models requires new data collection technologies (e.g., RFID, manual input) and training for field agents. Need to discuss the budget with the financial department. Learning Team Beaver Introduction to Operations Management 15.778_SU25 4. Organizational Culture and Legacy Systems: Yedioth is a conservative, family-owned company with long-standing processes. Radical operational changes challenge the company’s DNA and will require strong leadership and cross-functional buy-in. 5. Marginal Cost Research: 🚨multiple stakeholders identified🚨 To consider the safety stock, Assaf should find out the marginal cost with the information of under-stock cost and over-stock cost, which are not given in this case. They have to keep monitoring and evaluating to get the optimal number while coordinating with the operation and financial departments. Learning Team Beaver Introduction to Operations Management 15.778_SU25 Appendix 1 Retailer 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 μ 4.3 5.4 1.6 1.8 3.1 3.6 3.9 14.4 4.7 3.2 4.0 4.1 2.2 2.5 4.6 6.5 4.8 1.9 5.8 3.3 2.8 4.2 5.1 1.6 8.7 3.2 2.2 6.7 1.9 8.0 4.8 2.6 3.7 2.2 4.0 2.7 3.6 3.4 3.0 9.1 3.7 3.7 3.1 3.4 1.5 6.4 5.5 1.4 2.9 4.0 σ 1.8 1.9 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 3.9 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.7 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.0 2.1 2.1 1.1 2.4 1.5 1.7 3.1 1.3 2.7 1.9 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.4 2.5 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 Total Weeks 45 38 46 46 46 46 41 46 45 46 35 45 45 46 41 46 46 43 46 44 46 46 44 46 46 46 43 46 35 46 46 46 46 46 43 46 46 42 46 46 46 34 46 8 46 34 41 35 14 25 Total q* 8.4 10.0 3.3 4.6 6.5 7.6 7.6 23.5 8.5 6.4 8.3 6.4 4.8 5.1 8.2 11.2 8.7 3.7 9.9 7.3 5.1 9.2 10.0 4.2 14.3 6.6 6.1 13.9 4.9 14.2 9.3 5.5 7.4 5.2 7.8 6.3 7.3 5.9 6.3 14.9 7.1 8.6 6.5 5.5 3.7 10.8 10.2 3.9 5.9 6.8 393.3 q* Roundup 9 10 4 5 7 8 8 24 9 7 9 7 5 6 9 12 9 4 10 8 6 10 11 5 15 7 7 14 5 15 10 6 8 6 8 7 8 6 7 15 8 9 7 6 4 11 11 4 6 7 419 Learning Team Beaver Introduction to Operations Management 15.778_SU25 Appendix 2 # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Week Weekly sales 7/14/2008 170 7/21/2008 143 7/28/2008 173 8/11/2008 175 8/18/2008 172 8/25/2008 158 9/1/2008 192 9/15/2008 215 9/21/2008 199 10/27/2008 181 11/10/2008 184 11/17/2008 198 11/24/2008 181 12/8/2008 181 12/15/2008 201 12/22/2008 192 1/5/2009 208 1/12/2009 180 1/19/2009 197 1/26/2009 185 2/9/2009 186 2/16/2009 232 2/23/2009 207 3/9/2009 206 3/16/2009 165 4/20/2009 192 5/11/2009 201 5/18/2009 208 6/8/2009 177 6/15/2009 179 6/22/2009 188 6/29/2009 183 7/13/2009 238 7/20/2009 216 7/27/2009 198 8/10/2009 189 8/17/2009 193 8/24/2009 181 8/31/2009 195 10/12/2009 242 10/19/2009 184 10/26/2009 189 11/9/2009 184 11/16/2009 148 11/23/2009 184 11/30/2009 171