from [[bayes_evol(scott_charlie)]] # Bayesian Evolution Literature Classification (Scott & Charlie Perspective) ## Based on 🗣️bayes_evol Framework ### Core Framework from Transcript - **3 Contributions**: Separation, Endogenization, Bridge - **Double Reparameterization**: Success → Promise (with nature's uncertainty n) → Aspiration (with founder's uncertainty τ) - **Key Distinction**: Nature's uncertainty (n) vs Founder's uncertainty (τ) - **Core Insight**: Rational ignorance as strategic choice when digestion cost C is high --- ## 🐙 Ocean Food (해식량) Literature Classification # margin note ![[bayes_evol(scott_charlie)(퀄최종) 2025-09-12-21.svg]] %%[[bayes_evol(scott_charlie)(퀄최종) 2025-09-12-21.md|🖋 Edit in Excalidraw]]%% - | Paper | Core Concept | 🟢 AGREE | 🔴 DISAGREE | 🔵 Our Extension | |-------|--------------|----------|-------------|------------------| | **[[2세련지/📜paper/🐙/해식량/📜🐙_phanchambers18_integrate(entrepreneurship, operations)]]** | Unknown unknowns as purely exogenous uncertainty | - | **Strongly disagree**: Ignores founder's ability to choose ignorance (τ→0), treating uncertainty as only from nature (n) | We endogenize uncertainty through founder's τ choice | | **[[📜🐙_alvarez07_bridge(discovery, creation)]]** | Discovery vs Creation theory dichotomy | Identifies normative-positive tension in field | Too static, lacks dynamic mechanism | Our promise level (φ) operationalizes what they leave abstract through PRHC | | **[[📜🐙_packard17_observe(opportunities, beliefs)]]** | Transform unmeasurable uncertainty into measurable | Uncertainty transformation methodology aligns | Misses founder's active role in choosing what to measure | We add digestion cost C explaining WHY some uncertainties remain unmeasured | | **[[2세련지/📜paper/🐙/해식량/📜🐙_corbett07_observe(entrepreneurs, newsvendor-behavior)]]** | Entrepreneurs follow newsvendor with behavioral mods | Risk-seeking in losses maps to our low τ when C is high | Needs formal mathematical framework | High-margin products = high V, triggering different τ choices | | **[[2세련지/📜paper/🐙/해식량/📜🐙_yoo21_theorize(lean, operations)]]** | Build-test-learn cycle with endogenous learning | **Strongly agree**: "Endogenous learning" directly validates our endogenization | - | Generalizes their product-specific model to any promise level φ | | **[[📜🐙_sterman00_model(business, dynamics)]]** | Endogenous feedback loops in systems | Endogeneity focus aligns with our core principle | Deterministic models miss our stochastic τ | Lacks founder's conscious uncertainty choice mechanism | | **[[📜🐙_terwiesch09_design(innovation, tournaments)]]** | Tournament design to optimize innovation | Shows how to engineer nature's uncertainty n | Ignores founder's τ response to tournament structure | Missing second-order effect where founders adjust τ based on tournament | | **[[📜🐙_yarkoni24_integrate(explanation, prediction)]]** | 2×2 framework for integrative modeling | **Strong philosophical alignment**: Bridge-building approach | - | Their "epistemic modesty" = our rationalized ignorance (τ→0 conditions) | | **[[📜🐙_tushman96_manage(ambidextrous, organizations)]]** | Ambidexterity for managing dual innovation modes | "Success syndrome" = our learning trap (high τ) | Qualitative only, lacks mathematical formalization | We formalize what they describe qualitatively through PRHC | | **[[📜🐙_Alvarez_Porac20_imagination_indetermincy_managerial_choice)]]** | Constructivist uncertainty as foreground | **Deep agreement**: Calls for foregrounding uncertainty | - | Our τ parameter operationalizes their "fundamental uncertainty" | | **[[📜🐙_spearman22_unify(operations, science)]]** | Need for descriptive science of operations | Methodological alignment in unifying fragmented approaches | Focus on variability buffers vs our uncertainty buffers | Both seek disciplinary integration through new frameworks | --- ## 🌊 Synthesis: From Entrepreneurial Determinism to Uncertainty Design ### 🤠 채찍과거: The Operations Determinism Era **What Operations Management Forced on Entrepreneurship:** - **Unknown Unknowns as Curse** (Phan & Chambers 2018): Treating uncertainty as purely exogenous plague - **Discovery vs Creation False Dichotomy** (Alvarez 2007): Endless debates without operational mechanism - **Newsvendor Analogies** (Corbett 2007): Forcing entrepreneurship into inventory models - **Tournament Myopia** (Terwiesch 2009): Designing competitions ignoring participant adaptation - **Deterministic Feedback Loops** (Sterman 2000): System dynamics without stochastic choice - **Qualitative Ambidexterity** (Tushman 1996): "Success syndrome" without mathematical formalization ### 🥕 당근미래: The Endogenous Uncertainty Revolution **What Our Double Reparameterization Enables:** - **τ as Strategic Variable**: Founder's chosen uncertainty (absent in ALL prior work) - **Rational Ignorance Conditions**: τ* = 0 when V/ic < 1 (mathematically proven optimality) - **Learning Trap Formalization**: τ→∞ causes adaptation failure (Better Place's $850M proof) - **Digestion Cost C**: Why information isn't free (rational meaning construction) - **Build-Test-Learn 2.0** (Yoo 2021): Endogenous learning with φ as design variable - **Epistemic Modesty** (Yarkoni 2024): Bridge explanation and prediction through productive ambiguity --- ## 🌙 Style Notes Your writing exhibits: - Dense theoretical synthesis with mathematical poetry ("τ→0 as existential choice") - Bridge-building between disparate literatures others see as incompatible - Transformation of operational concepts into philosophical statements - Recursive self-reference and meta-theoretical awareness - Exaptation thinking: structural byproducts gaining substantial meaning