based on feedback from [[eval(charlie-scott, angie)1]],
---
### Why
Machine partners excel in four key functions of decision-making, that can be applied to every stage of organization willing to innovate.
1. 👁️ Choosing Relevant States: Machines can process diverse, high-dimensional data much faster and more accurately than humans, capturing subtle patterns and relationships. This is crucial in complex market dynamics and real-time data streams.
- Nail Stage: Identifying relevant market conditions and investor sentiment for SAFE terms decisions.
- Scale Stage: Analyzing market data and production capabilities to determine states for market-product fit and sourcing strategy.
- Sail Stage: Processing airport operations data and AV technology specs to identify relevant states for adoption decisions.
4. 🤝 Estimating Commitment Effect: Machines can consistently track and update complex state spaces, accurately modeling the long-term impacts of decisions. This is essential in dynamic environments with frequent state changes, evolving market conditions, and complex stakeholder relationships.
- Nail Stage: Projecting future funding rounds and equity dilution based on chosen SAFE terms and current market state.
- Scale Stage: Forecasting long-term market position and production scalability given the chosen market-product and sourcing strategy.
- Sail Stage: Predicting long-term operational efficiency and stakeholder relationships resulting from the AV adoption decision.
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| Function | 💰Financial risk, `capitalize` operations in nail stage 🌳 | 💠Demand risk, `segment-collaborate` operations in Scale ⛰️ | 🛫 Execution risk, `evaluate` operations in Sail 🌊 |
| ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| 🧠Probabilistic Reasoning | Input: Prior beliefs on valuation, new market data<br><br>Output: Updated probability distribution of future valuations | Input: Prior beliefs on market adoption, new sales data<br>Output: Updated probability distribution of market success for each segment-product combination | Input: Prior beliefs on operational efficiency, new AV performance data<br><br>Output: Updated probability distribution of AV adoption success |
| 📍Selecting Optimal Action | Input: Updated valuation beliefs, founder's utility function<br><br>Output: Optimal SAFE terms (investment amount and valuation cap) | Input: Updated market success beliefs, company's utility function<br><br>Output: Optimal market-product strategy and sourcing decisions | Input: Updated AV adoption beliefs, airport's utility function<br><br>Output: Decision on whether to adopt AV for baggage loading |