Abstract: This paper introduces a prototype toolbox for startup pivoting, employing a cog-
nitive system’s multi-level framework to reconcile tension between action and optimization in
entrepreneurship. By modeling founders and investors as resource-rational agents, we interpret
inference-based proposals as actions, viewing term sheet negotiations as a convergence process
toward optimal solutions. In this context, conversational inference between parties represents
an information processing mechanism aimed at maximizing expected utility given shared be-
liefs. Our approach synthesizes entrepreneurial strategy, Bayesian decision theory, probabilistic
programming, and conversational inference across computational, algorithmic, and implemen-
tation levels. This toolbox facilitates counterfactual reasoning, scenario planning, and strategic
choice testing, bridging the gap between abstract optimization objectives and concrete, iterative
actions in uncertain entrepreneurial environments.
from [over🍃](https://www.overleaf.com/project/6539dc9fb88516db7cb91904)
![[comp2alg_rational_analysis.png]]