# ๐ŸŽญ Sep15final์—์„œ์˜ ๋ณ€์ฃผ (Improvisations) ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ ## ๐Ÿ“ Sep15final (committee).md์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋œ ์š”์†Œ๋“ค (๊ณ„ํš์— ์—†๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค) ### 1. **Abstract ์ถ”๊ฐ€** - ๐ŸŽนscale(์•ฝ์†์„ค๊ณ„).md์—๋Š” ์—†์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ ์‹œ์ž‘์— Abstract ์„น์…˜ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ - ์ „์ฒด ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์„ ํ•œ ๋‹จ๋ฝ์œผ๋กœ ์š”์•ฝ - ์ฃผ์š” ๊ธฐ์—ฌ์™€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ช…ํ™•ํžˆ ์ œ์‹œ ### 2. **Jaynes ์ธ์šฉ๋ฌธ** - Abstract ๋‹ค์Œ์— E.T. Jaynes์˜ ์ธ์šฉ๋ฌธ ์ถ”๊ฐ€: > "It appears to be a general principle that, whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought." - ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์˜ ์ฒ ํ•™์  ๊ธฐ์กฐ๋ฅผ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ญํ•  ### 3. **๋„์ž…๋ถ€ ๊ตฌ์กฐ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ** - Tesla์™€ Better Place ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋ฅผ ์ฒซ ๋ฌธ๋‹จ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ง์ ‘ ๋Œ€๋น„ - ์›๋ž˜ ๊ณ„ํš๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๊ทน์ ์ด๊ณ  ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ธ ๋„์ž… ### 4. **ํ‘œ(Table) ์ง์ ‘ ์‚ฝ์ž…** - Table 1: Bayesian-Entrepreneurial Metaphors for the Flexibility-Efficiency Tension - Table 2: False Dichotomies Unified by the ฯ„ Framework - ๊ณ„ํš์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ณ„๋„ figure/table๋กœ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ ์˜ˆ์ •์ด์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๋ณธ๋ฌธ์— ์ง์ ‘ ํ†ตํ•ฉ ### 5. **์„น์…˜ ๋„˜๋ฒ„๋ง ๊ฐ„์†Œํ™”** - ๊ณ„ํš: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3... ์„ธ๋ถ€ ๋„˜๋ฒ„๋ง - ์‹ค์ œ: 1, 2, 3, 4 ์ฃผ์š” ์„น์…˜๋งŒ ๋ช…์‹œ ## ๐Ÿ”„ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์กฐ์ • ### 1. **Theory ์„น์…˜ ํ†ตํ•ฉ** - ๊ณ„ํš: ๐Ÿ…2.12๐Ÿ‡, ๐Ÿ…2.34๐Ÿ”ฅ, ๐Ÿ…2.56๐Ÿงฌ, ๐Ÿ…2.78๐Ÿ’ธ ๋“ฑ ์„ธ๋ถ„ํ™” - ์‹ค์ œ: Section 2๋กœ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•˜๋˜ ๋‚ด๋ถ€์—์„œ ์ฃผ์ œ๋ณ„ ๊ตฌ๋ถ„ ### 2. **Application ์„น์…˜ ์••์ถ•** - ๊ณ„ํš: 6๊ฐœ ํ•˜์œ„ ์„น์…˜ - ์‹ค์ œ: Section 3์œผ๋กœ ํ†ตํ•ฉ, Tesla vs Better Place ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์„œ์ˆ  ### 3. **Conclusion ๊ฐ„์†Œํ™”** - ๊ณ„ํš: 4๊ฐœ ์ฃผ์ œ(๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿงฌ๐Ÿ’ธ)๋กœ 8๊ฐœ ๋‹จ๋ฝ - ์‹ค์ œ: Section 4๋กœ ํ†ตํ•ฉ, ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ ์ค‘์‹ฌ ## ๐Ÿ’ก ๋‚ด์šฉ์  ๊ฐ•์กฐ์  ๋ณ€ํ™” ### 1. **์ˆ˜ํ•™์  ํ‘œํ˜„ ์ตœ์†Œํ™”** - ๊ณ„ํš: ๊ฐ ๋ชจ๋ธ(M1, M1', M2, M2')๋ณ„ ์ˆ˜์‹ ์ œ์‹œ - ์‹ค์ œ: ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์ˆ˜์‹๋งŒ ์ œ์‹œ, ์ง๊ด€์  ์„ค๋ช… ๊ฐ•์กฐ ### 2. **์‚ฌ๋ก€ ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์„œ์ˆ ** - Tesla vs Better Place๋ฅผ ์ผ๊ด€๋œ ์˜ˆ์‹œ๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉ - ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋ก€(Slack, Nikola ๋“ฑ)๋Š” ๋ณด์กฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ ### 3. **Metaphor ๊ฐ•ํ™”** - DNA double helix์™€ firebreak ์€์œ ๋ฅผ ๋” ์ž์„ธํžˆ ์„ค๋ช… - ์‹œ๊ฐ์  ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€๋ฅผ ํ…์ŠคํŠธ๋กœ ํ’๋ถ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฌ˜์‚ฌ ## ๐ŸŽฏ ์ „๋žต์  ์„ ํƒ ### 1. **๋…์ž ํƒ€๊ฒŸ ๋ช…ํ™•ํ™”** - Management Science ์ €๋„ ๋…์ž ๊ณ ๋ ค - ์ˆ˜ํ•™์  ์—„๋ฐ€์„ฑ๊ณผ ์‹ค๋ฌด์  ํ†ต์ฐฐ์˜ ๊ท ํ˜• ### 2. **ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€ ์ง‘์ค‘** - ฯ„ (tau) ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์˜๋ฏธ ๊ฐ•์กฐ - ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ „๋žต์  ๊ฐ€์น˜ ๋ถ€๊ฐ ### 3. **์ด๋ก ์  ๊ธฐ์—ฌ ๋ช…์‹œ** - Hierarchical Bayesian ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก ์˜ ์ฐฝ์—… ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์ ์šฉ - Action school vs Planning school ํ†ตํ•ฉ ## ๐Ÿ“Š ์ƒ๋žต๋œ ์š”์†Œ๋“ค ### 1. **์ƒ์„ธํ•œ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์™€ ๋„ํ‘œ** - ๊ณ„ํšํ–ˆ๋˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ ์ž๋ฃŒ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ํ…์ŠคํŠธ๋กœ ๋Œ€์ฒด - ํ–ฅํ›„ presentation์ด๋‚˜ appendix์šฉ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๋ฅ˜ ### 2. **๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ์„ธ๋ถ€์‚ฌํ•ญ** - MCMC, Stan ์ฝ”๋“œ ๋“ฑ ๊ตฌํ˜„ ๋””ํ…Œ์ผ ์ƒ๋žต - ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก ์  ์„ธ๋ถ€์‚ฌํ•ญ์€ ๊ฐ„๋žตํžˆ๋งŒ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ ### 3. **์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋ก€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ** - Nikola, Theranos ๋“ฑ ์‹คํŒจ ์‚ฌ๋ก€ ์ƒ์„ธ ๋ถ„์„ ์ถ•์†Œ - Airbnb, Uber ๋“ฑ ์„ฑ๊ณต ์‚ฌ๋ก€ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ ์ตœ์†Œํ™” ## ๐Ÿš€ ํ–ฅํ›„ ํ™œ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ณ€์ฃผ๋“ค์€ ๋‹ค์Œ ๋ฒ„์ „์—์„œ: 1. **Extended version**: ์ƒ๋žต๋œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ์„ธ๋ถ€์‚ฌํ•ญ ๋ณต์› 2. **Practitioner version**: ์‚ฌ๋ก€ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ตฌ์„ฑ 3. **Teaching note**: ์€์œ ์™€ ์ง๊ด€์  ์„ค๋ช… ๊ฐ•ํ™” 4. **Technical appendix**: ์ˆ˜ํ•™์  ๋„์ถœ๊ณผ ์ฝ”๋“œ ์ œ๊ณต --- *์ด ๋ณ€์ฃผ ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ๋Š” ํ–ฅํ›„ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ ๊ฐœ์ •์ด๋‚˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ˜•์‹์œผ๋กœ์˜ ์ „ํ™˜ ์‹œ ์ฐธ๊ณ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉ*