### 2024: [[🎨Bayesian Optimization for Entrepreneurial Choice - A Simulation-Based Approach]] Collaborators: Charlie Fine, Scott Stern Outlet: Management Science or Production and Operations Management This paper will develop and test three algorithms using a Bayesian optimization framework specifically tailored for entrepreneurs' pivoting decisions to find product-market fit. The study will focus on how combining causal and complex approaches can enhance entrepreneurial learning and decision-making in uncertain markets. The paper will present a simulation-based methodology that entrepreneurs can use to make more informed decisions about when and how to pivot their business models. ### 2024-25: A Probabilistic Programming Framework for Entrepreneurial Learning Across Startup Lifecycles Collaborators: Charlie Fine, Josh Tenenbaum, Vikash Mansinghka Outlet: Journal of Business Venturing or Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice This paper will synthesize work on Bayesian methods, entrepreneurship theory, and probabilistic programming to create a comprehensive framework for modeling and analyzing entrepreneurial strategies across different stages of a startup's lifecycle. The study will develop a domain-specific language for entrepreneurs that integrates probabilistic, relational, and causal reasoning. The paper will explore how different learning modes (e.g., Bayesian, behavioral, evolutionary) can be effectively applied at various stages of a startup's development, and how entrepreneurs can use this framework to make more informed decisions under uncertainty. ### 2025-26: Experiment Design Strategies for Entrepreneurs Collaborators: Scott Stern, Abdullah Almaatouq, Matt Cronin, Arnaldo Camuffo Outlet: Organization Science or Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal Integrative experiment design consumes resources. Despite its higher prediction accuracy, integrative experiment design may not be realistic for entrepreneurs whose resource is constrained. Building on ideas about making social science more cumulative, this paper will explore how to dewsign experiments that integrate various aspects of entrepreneurship theory and practice. The study will develop a framework for creating interconnected experiments that build upon each other, potentially utilizing the experiment infrastructure at Bocconi University value lab. The paper will address how fundamental entrepreneurial principles such as constraints and uncertainty influence strategic pivots and business model innovation, with a focus on designing experiments that can be replicated and extended across different contexts. ![[Pasted image 20240823090533.png|700]]