# βš”οΈ λͺ…λŸ‰ν•΄μ „ μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ **"μ‹ μ—κ²ŒλŠ” 아직 12μ²™μ˜ λ°°κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€"** **κΈ°κ°„**: 2025.10.21 (ν™”) - 11.10 (μ›”) (3μ£Ό 21일) **λͺ©ν‘œ**: Table 3, Figure 2, Paper 1편 --- # 🩸 필사즉생 λ§Ήμ„Έ ### πŸ‘Ύ 見 β†’ πŸ™ 利 β†’ πŸ… 思 β†’ 🐒 ηΎ© β†’ β†Ί ``` λ‚˜λŠ” πŸ‘Ύθ¦‹μœΌλ‘œ κΉ¨λ‹«κ³ , πŸ™εˆ©λ‘œ 움직이며, πŸ…ζ€λ‘œ μ„Έμš°κ³ , 🐒義둜 λλ§ΊλŠ”λ‹€. 1. **지연은 죄닀** β€” 였늘 ν•  것은 였늘 ν•œλ‹€. 내일은 μ—†λ‹€. 2. 생각보닀 원칙 3. λͺ¨λ“  가섀은 ν…ŒμŠ€νŠΈν•œλ‹€. 4. 맀일 [[μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€πŸ©Έ]] ``` --- ## πŸ“Š 전체 진행상황 ``` Week 1: [β– β– β– β– β–‘β–‘β–‘] 4/7일 (10.21 ν™”-10.27 μ›”) - 데이터 νŒŒμ΄ν”„λΌμΈ ꡬ좕 쀑 Week 2: [β–‘β–‘β–‘β–‘β–‘β–‘β–‘] 0/7일 (10.28 ν™”-11.03 μ›”) Week 3: [β–‘β–‘β–‘β–‘β–‘β–‘β–‘] 0/7일 (11.04 ν™”-11.10 μ›”) μ‚°μΆœλ¬Ό: [⏳] Table 1 [ ] Table 2 [ ] Table 3 [ ] Figure 1 [ ] Figure 2 ``` **졜근 4일 (10.21-10.24) μ£Όμš” μ „κ³Ό**: - βœ… Pitchbook raw data 확보 (7 files, 4.69 GB) - βœ… Script 01 μ‹€ν–‰ 성곡 β†’ company_master.csv (651 MB, 10/22 생성) - βœ… Pipeline scripts 02-05 μž‘μ„± μ™„λ£Œ (**μ™„λ£Œ μ‹œμ : 10/22 컀밋 κΈ°μ€€**) ↳ κ·Όκ±°: "Complete ... pipeline with 5 processing scripts" (10/22, master) - βœ… W0 commitment email λ°œμ†‘ (10/25, Day 5) - ⏳ Deal data 처리 μ§„ν–‰ 쀑 (deal_panel.csv = 110B, ν™•μž₯ ν•„μš”) - ⏳ LIWC vagueness scoring 검증 ν•„μš” --- ## πŸ€– μžλ™ν™” μ‹œμŠ€ν…œ (NEW!) **"μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ μ €μž₯ = Git 컀밋"** 이제 μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€λ₯Ό μž‘μ„±ν•˜κ³  μ €μž₯ν•˜κΈ°λ§Œ ν•˜λ©΄ μžλ™μœΌλ‘œ Git에 μ»€λ°‹λ˜κ³  GitHub에 ν‘Έμ‹œλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€! ### ⚑ λΉ λ₯Έ μ‚¬μš©λ²• #### 방법 1: μ¦‰μ‹œ 컀밋 (맀일 저녁 회고 ν›„ ꢌμž₯) ```bash cd "/Users/hyunjimoon/MIT Dropbox/Angie.H Moon/tolzul/Front/On/πŸ’Œμ°°λ¦¬μŠ€μΊ‡ λŸ¬λΈŒλ ˆν„° ν”Œμ /μ‚Όλ„μˆ˜κ΅°/automation" ./quick_commit.sh ``` #### 방법 2: μžλ™ 감지 (ν•˜λ£¨ 쒅일 μΌœλ‘κΈ°) ```bash cd "/Users/hyunjimoon/MIT Dropbox/Angie.H Moon/tolzul/Front/On/πŸ’Œμ°°λ¦¬μŠ€μΊ‡ λŸ¬λΈŒλ ˆν„° ν”Œμ /μ‚Όλ„μˆ˜κ΅°/automation" ./watch_log.sh ``` 그러면 μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ νŽΈμ§‘ β†’ μ €μž₯ β†’ 3초 ν›„ μžλ™ 컀밋! ### πŸ“‹ 첫 μ„€μ • (1회만) ```bash cd "/Users/hyunjimoon/MIT Dropbox/Angie.H Moon/tolzul/Front/On/πŸ’Œμ°°λ¦¬μŠ€μΊ‡ λŸ¬λΈŒλ ˆν„° ν”Œμ /μ‚Όλ„μˆ˜κ΅°/automation" chmod +x *.sh ./quick_commit.sh # ν…ŒμŠ€νŠΈ ``` ### πŸ’‘ μžλ™ν™” 효과 | Before | After | |--------|-------| | μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ μž‘μ„± (10λΆ„) + Git 컀밋 (3λΆ„) = **13λΆ„** | μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ μž‘μ„± (10λΆ„) = **10λΆ„** | | 컀밋 깜빑 (10/24 같은 상황) | **λΆˆκ°€λŠ₯** (μ €μž₯=컀밋) | | 컀밋 λ©”μ‹œμ§€ κ³ λ―Ό | **μžλ™ 생성** | | GitHub μž”λ”” λΆˆκ·œμΉ™ | **맀일 μžλ™** | ### πŸ“š μžμ„Έν•œ μ‚¬μš©λ²• β†’ `automation/README.md` μ°Έκ³  --- # πŸ“… Week 1: 적지(適地) - Data + Model 1 **λͺ©ν‘œ**: Table 1, 2 μ™„μ„± --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 1 - 2025.10.21 (ν™”) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš (5λΆ„) **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [x] empirics/code/ νŒŒμ΄ν”„λΌμΈ νŒŒμ•… - [x] START_HERE.md, END_HERE.md μ΄ˆμ•ˆ μž‘μ„± - [x] 데이터 ꡬ쑰 이해 **μ°Έμ‘°**: - `../strategic ambiguity/empirics/code/PIPELINE_GUIDE.md` - `../strategic ambiguity/empirics/workflow.md` --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 #### πŸ… 思 (Claude) - 전체 ꡬ쑰 섀계 ``` μž‘μ—…: ν”„λ‘œμ νŠΈ 전체 ꡬ쑰 섀계 μ‚°μΆœ: - START_HERE.md (μ‹€ν–‰ κ°€μ΄λ“œ) - END_HERE.md (λ‚˜μΉ¨λ°˜/λ‘œλ“œλ§΅) - μ‚Όλ„μˆ˜κ΅° 폴더 ꡬ쑰 - AIν”„λ‘¬ν”„νŠΈ.md (3개 AI μ—­ν•  μ •μ˜) ``` **μ£Όμš” κ²°μ •**: - 5개 script pipeline ν™•μ • (01~05) - Vagueness = 100 - LIWC certitude - Integration cost = binary (hardware vs software) - 4-step heuristic for Series A/B identification --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œν•œ 것**: - βœ… 전체 ν”„λ‘œμ νŠΈ ꡬ쑰 섀계 μ™„λ£Œ - βœ… 21일 roadmap ν™•μ • - βœ… 3개 AI μ—­ν•  λΆ„λ‹΄ (εˆ©ζ€ηΎ©) **배운 것**: - Dual-track μ „λž΅ (empirics + theory) - Scott의 pitch deck corpus μ œμ•ˆμ΄ 핡심 **λ§‰ν˜”λ˜ 것**: - Pitchbook data μœ„μΉ˜ νŒŒμ•… - ν•΄κ²°: Dropbox 동기화 확인 **내일 (Day 2, 10.22 수)**: - [ ] Script 01 μ‹€ν–‰ (company data 처리) - [ ] Vagueness scoring κ΅¬ν˜„ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 2 - 2025.10.22 (수) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [x] Script 01 μ‹€ν–‰ (company data) - [x] Vagueness 점수 계산 둜직 κ΅¬ν˜„ - [⏳] company_master.csv 생성 --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 #### πŸ™ 利 (ChatGPT) - μ΄ˆμ•ˆ μž‘μ„± ``` μž‘μ—…: 01_process_company_data.py μž‘μ„± 둜직: 1. Company*.dat 파일 읽기 (5개 파일, 4GB+) 2. AI/ML keywords 필터링 3. Vagueness = keyword counting method 4. Integration cost = hardware keywords μ‚°μΆœ: empirics/code/01_process_company_data.py ``` #### πŸ… 思 (Claude) - μ‹€ν–‰ & 검증 ``` μž‘μ—…: Script μ‹€ν–‰ 및 검증 κ²°κ³Ό: - βœ… company_master.csv 생성 (651 MB) - βœ… AI/ML firms μΆ”μΆœ 성곡 - 생성 μ‹œκ°: 10/22 20:26:56 ``` **λ°œκ²¬ν•œ 이슈**: - LIWC certitude 점수 λŒ€μ‹  keyword counting μ‚¬μš© 쀑 - μ‹€μ œ LIWC 라이브러리 적용 ν•„μš” (더 μ •κ΅ν•œ μΈ‘μ •) --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: - βœ… Script 01 μ™„μ„± 및 μ‹€ν–‰ - βœ… 651MB company data 처리 성곡 - βœ… Vagueness 첫 버전 κ΅¬ν˜„ - βœ… **Scripts 02-05 μ΄ˆμ•ˆ μž‘μ„± μ‹œμž‘** (이날뢀터 pipeline ꡬ좕) ↳ κ·Όκ±°: GitHub 컀밋 "Complete Pitchbook data analysis pipeline with 5 processing scripts" **배움**: - Pitchbook .dat 파일 ꡬ쑰 (pipe-delimited) - Description fieldκ°€ vagueness μΈ‘μ • 핡심 **λ§‰ν˜”λ˜ 것**: - Memory 이슈 (4GB 파일) - ν•΄κ²°: Chunked reading + pandas μ΅œμ ν™” **내일 (Day 3, 10.23 λͺ©)**: - [ ] Script 02 (deal data 처리) - [ ] Series A/B 식별 heuristic κ΅¬ν˜„ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 3 - 2025.10.23 (λͺ©) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ (μ •μ •)**: - [x] **xarray λ¦¬νŒ©ν„° PR λ¨Έμ§€ + μžλ™ 파일 감지 둜직 반영** - [x] 전체 workflow 점검 (λ¬Έμ„œ 보강) - [ ] Script 02 μ‹€ν–‰ (deal data) --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 #### πŸ™ 利 (ChatGPT) - μ½”λ“œ λ¦¬νŒ©ν„° ``` μž‘μ—…: xarray μ „ν™˜ 및 μžλ™ 감지 둜직 (μ „λ‚  μž‘μ„±ν•œ scripts κ°œμ„ ) κ·Όκ±°: "auto detect file existence and pick up from there" (10/23, master) μ‚°μΆœ: - xarray 기반 데이터 처리 ꡬ쑰 - μžλ™ 체크포인트 감지 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œ ``` #### πŸ… 思 (Claude) - PR λ¨Έμ§€ 및 ꡬ쑰화 ``` μž‘μ—…: PR #4 λ¨Έμ§€ (xarray λ¦¬νŒ©ν„°) κ·Όκ±°: "Merge pull request #4 ..." (10/23, master) 핡심 κ°œμ„ : - xarray 기반 닀차원 데이터 처리 - μžλ™ 파일 쑴재 감지 및 재개 둜직 - 체크포인트 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œ κ°•ν™” ``` **μ§„ν–‰ 상황**: - βœ… PR #4 λ¨Έμ§€ μ™„λ£Œ (xarray μ „ν™˜) - βœ… μžλ™ 감지 둜직 μΆ”κ°€ - ⏳ Deal data μ‹€ν–‰ λŒ€κΈ° (deal_panel.csv = 110B둜 μž‘μŒ) --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: - βœ… xarray λ¦¬νŒ©ν„° PR #4 λ¨Έμ§€ - βœ… μžλ™ 파일 감지 둜직 μΆ”κ°€ - βœ… Pipeline ꡬ쑰 κ°œμ„  **배움**: - Panel data structureκ°€ 핡심 - Series A/B ꡬ뢄이 κ°€μž₯ κΉŒλ‹€λ‘œμš΄ λΆ€λΆ„ **내일 (Day 4, 10.24 금)**: - [ ] Script 02 디버깅 및 μ‹€ν–‰ - [ ] Deal data μ œλŒ€λ‘œ 처리 --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 4 - 2025.10.24 (금) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **컀밋 μƒνƒœ λ©”λͺ¨**: **master 브랜치 컀밋 μ—†μŒ** (μ˜€ν”„λΌμΈ 진단/섀계 μ§„ν–‰) ν–₯ν›„ κ΄€λ ¨ 변경은 별도 브랜치/PR둜 남기기. **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [x] Deal data 문제 진단 - [x] Script 02 디버깅 (μ˜€ν”„λΌμΈ) - [ ] Deal panel 생성 --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 #### 🐒 ηΎ© (Gemini) - 문제 발견 ``` 검증 κ²°κ³Ό: - ❌ deal_panel.csv = 110B (λΉ„μ •μƒμ μœΌλ‘œ μž‘μŒ) - ❌ Series A/B matching μ‹€νŒ¨ - 원인: Deal data의 VCRound field λˆ„λ½/뢈λͺ…ν™• ``` #### πŸ… 思 (Claude) - ν•΄κ²° λ°©μ•ˆ ``` λŒ€μ•ˆ 섀계: 1. DealType + DealSize + Sequence 기반 heuristic 2. λ‚ μ§œ ν•„ν„° κ°•ν™” (A: 2021-22, B: 2023-25) 3. Manual validation sample 생성 ν•΄κ²°: workflow.md에 4-step heuristic λ¬Έμ„œν™” ``` **남은 μž‘μ—…**: - ⏳ Script 02 μˆ˜μ • 및 μž¬μ‹€ν–‰ - ⏳ Deal matching 검증 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: - βœ… Deal data 문제 진단 μ™„λ£Œ - βœ… ν•΄κ²° λ°©μ•ˆ 섀계 **배움**: - Pitchbook dataλŠ” μ™„λ²½ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŒ - Heuristic approach ν•„μš” - Manual validation μ€‘μš”μ„± **내일 (Day 5, 10.25 ν† )**: - [ ] Script 02 μˆ˜μ • μ™„λ£Œ - [ ] W0 commitment email λ°œμ†‘ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 5 - 2025.10.25 (ν† ) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [x] W0 commitment email λ°œμ†‘ - [⏳] Script 02 μˆ˜μ • (μ§„ν–‰ 쀑) - [ ] μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ μ—…λ°μ΄νŠΈ --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 #### πŸ… 思 (Claude) - μ „λž΅ 수립 ``` μž‘μ—…: W0 commitment email μ΄ˆμ•ˆ 리뷰 μ£Όμš” κ²°μ •: 1. 감정적 commitment νƒ€μž… (gratitude-focused) 2. λ‹€μŒμ€ empirical progress 메일 (W1-싀증) 3. Dual-track μ „λž΅ ν™•μ • (Tue/Fri rotation) μ‚°μΆœ: W0.md β†’ λ°œμ†‘ μ™„λ£Œ (10/25) ``` #### 🐒 ηΎ© (Gemini) - ν”„λ‘œμ„ΈμŠ€ 리뷰 ``` 검증 질문: - W0λ₯Ό λ³΄λƒˆλ‹€λ©΄, λ‹€μŒμ€ 무엇? - Empirical progress 보여쀄 것이 μžˆλŠ”κ°€? - μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ μ—…λ°μ΄νŠΈ ν•„μš” κ²°λ‘ : Week 1 μ§„ν–‰ 상황 정리 μš°μ„  ``` **ν˜„μž¬ 상황**: - βœ… W0 λ°œμ†‘ (commitment μ„ μ–Έ) - ⏳ Script 02 디버깅 μ§„ν–‰ 쀑 - ⏳ 4일간 μ „κ³Ό 정리 (Day 1-4) --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: - βœ… W0 commitment email λ°œμ†‘ - βœ… μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ Day 1-4 μ—…λ°μ΄νŠΈ - βœ… Week 1 μ§„ν–‰λ₯  κ°€μ‹œν™” (4/7일) **배움**: - Dual-track μ „λž΅μ˜ μ€‘μš”μ„± - W0(commitment) β†’ W1(싀증) 흐름 ν™•μ • - μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€ = accountability tool **이번 μ£Ό 남은 일정 (Day 6-7, 10.26 일-10.27 μ›”)**: - [ ] Script 02 μˆ˜μ • μ™„λ£Œ - [ ] Deal panel 생성 성곡 - [ ] Script 03 μ‹€ν–‰ (panel κ²°ν•©) - [ ] Week 1 회고 μž‘μ„± **Week 2 μ€€λΉ„**: - [ ] W1-싀증 email μ΄ˆμ•ˆ (Wed 10/29) - [ ] W1-이둠 email μ΄ˆμ•ˆ (Sat 11/1) --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 6 - 2025.10.26 (일) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - **[βœ…] 연ꡬ 섀계 μ΅œμ’… ν™•μ •:** H2 쑰건뢀 κ°€μ„€ (Realizable/Unrealizable Option) 및 Model 3(μƒν˜Έμž‘μš©) ν™•μ •. - **[βœ…] 데이터 μ „λž΅ ν™•μ •:** Era Pair (AV vs. 3DP) μ„ μ •, T=1 원본 ν…μŠ€νŠΈ 확보 μœ„ν•œ 2-Track μ „λž΅ (Path A/B) 수립. - **[βœ…] 데이터 ν’ˆμ§ˆ κΈ°μ€€ κ°•ν™”:** 인과적 λͺ…ν™•μ„±, 객관적 μΈ‘μ •, 쒅단적 μ™„κ²°μ„± μ€‘μ‹¬μ˜ 평가 μ§€ν‘œ(v2.0) 수립. - **[βœ…] 데이터 μˆ˜μ§‘ μ€€λΉ„:** ChatGPT/Claude λŒ€μƒ T=1 원본 ν…μŠ€νŠΈ μˆ˜μ§‘μš© 상세 ν”„λ‘¬ν”„νŠΈ (20개 κΈ°μ—…) μž‘μ„± μ™„λ£Œ. - **[βœ…] LLM ν˜‘μ—… μ€€λΉ„:** μ°¨κΈ° LLM μΈμŠ€ν„΄μŠ€("의 v3.0")λ₯Ό μœ„ν•œ μ΅œμ’… μΈμˆ˜μΈκ³„ λ¬Έμ„œ μž‘μ„± μ™„λ£Œ. - [-] Robustness checks (데이터 μˆ˜μ§‘ ν›„ μ§„ν–‰ μ˜ˆμ •) - [-] λŒ€μ•ˆ λͺ¨ν˜• (데이터 μˆ˜μ§‘ ν›„ μ§„ν–‰ μ˜ˆμ •) ![[μ „νˆ¬μΌμ§€πŸ©Έ 2025_10_26.excalidraw]] --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 - **H2 λ©”μ»€λ‹ˆμ¦˜ 심화:** 'λͺ¨ν˜Έν•¨'의 μ˜΅μ…˜ κ°€μΉ˜κ°€ μ‚°μ—…μ˜ ν”Όλ²— λΉ„μš©(톡합 λΉ„μš©)에 따라 μ‘°κ±΄λΆ€λ‘œ μ‹€ν˜„λœλ‹€λŠ” "Realizable vs. Unrealizable Option Value" (레고 vs. 전함) ν”„λ ˆμž„μ›Œν¬ 정립. - **λͺ¨λΈ μž¬μ •μ˜:** H2 검증을 μœ„ν•΄ `Vagueness Γ— High_Integration_Cost` μƒν˜Έμž‘μš© 항을 ν¬ν•¨ν•˜λŠ” Model 3κ°€ ν•„μˆ˜μ μž„μ„ ν™•μ •. κΈ°μ‘΄ Model 2(Fixed Effects)λŠ” λΆˆμ™„μ „ν•œ κΈ°μ€€μ„ μœΌλ‘œ κ·œμ •. - **Era Pair μ΅œμ’… μ„ μ •:** 이둠적 λŒ€λΉ„ κ·ΉλŒ€ν™”λ₯Ό μœ„ν•΄ **πŸš— AV vs. πŸ–¨οΈ 3D ν”„λ¦°νŒ…** νŽ˜μ–΄ ν™•μ •. - **데이터 μ „λž΅ 및 μœ„ν—˜ 식별:** **T=1 '원본 약속' ν…μŠ€νŠΈ** ν™•λ³΄μ˜ μ€‘μš”μ„± μž¬ν™•μΈ. Pitchbook Current Description μ‚¬μš© λΆˆκ°€ ν™•μ •. Path A(PB Historical)의 'νƒ€μž„μŠ€νƒ¬ν”„ μœ νš¨μ„±' 검증 λ¦¬μŠ€ν¬μ™€ Path B(YC Data)의 μ•ˆμ „μ„± 비ꡐ 뢄석 μ™„λ£Œ. - **데이터 ν’ˆμ§ˆ κΈ°μ€€ μ—…λ°μ΄νŠΈ (v2.0):** El-Zayaty, Novelli, Yang λ“± μ„ ν–‰ μ—°κ΅¬μž 관점 Critique λ°˜μ˜ν•˜μ—¬ 인과적 λͺ…ν™•μ„±, 객관적 μΈ‘μ •, 쒅단적 μ™„κ²°μ„± 및 편ν–₯ 인식 μ€‘μ‹¬μœΌλ‘œ 평가 μ§€ν‘œ κ°•ν™”. - **데이터 μˆ˜μ§‘ μ‹€ν–‰ κ³„νš 수립:** ChatGPT/Claude λŒ€μƒ, 20개 κΈ°μ—…([[AV10]], [[3DP10]], [[AI10]])의 검증 κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ T=1 원본 ν…μŠ€νŠΈ (ν”ΌμΉ˜, μ•‘μ…€λŸ¬λ ˆμ΄ν„° 자료, ν¬λΌμš°λ“œνŽ€λ”©, 초기 μ›Ή μ•„μΉ΄μ΄λΈŒ λ“±) μˆ˜μ§‘μ„ μœ„ν•œ 상세 ν”„λ‘¬ν”„νŠΈ μž‘μ„± μ™„λ£Œ. - **LLM ν˜‘μ—… μ€€λΉ„:** μ΅œμ’… μΈμˆ˜μΈκ³„ λ¬Έμ„œ("의 v3.0") μ—…λ°μ΄νŠΈ μ™„λ£Œ, μ°¨κΈ° LLM이 연ꡬ λ§₯락과 μ΅œμš°μ„  과제(μ‹€μ œ 데이터 μˆ˜μ§‘ 및 검증)λ₯Ό λͺ…ν™•νžˆ μΈμ§€ν•˜λ„λ‘ μ€€λΉ„. --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 7, 10.27 μ›”)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 7 - 2025.10.27 (μ›”) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [βœ…] Claude Code pipeline μ‹€ν–‰ κ²°κ³Ό 진단 - [βœ…] H2 Singular Matrix 문제 근본원인 νŒŒμ•… - [βœ…] Survival λ³€μˆ˜ μž¬μ •μ˜ μ „λž΅ 수립 - [βœ…] Scott/Charlie ν”„λ ˆμž„μ›Œν¬ 기반 DV 섀계 - [βœ…] ChatGPT validation ν”„λ‘¬ν”„νŠΈ μ€€λΉ„ - [ ] Week 1 정리 - [ ] Table 1, 2 μ΅œμ’… 확인 --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 **Pipeline μ‹€ν–‰ κ²°κ³Ό 뢄석:** - H1 성곡 (vagueness α₁=-3.59e-07, p<0.05) but κ³„μˆ˜ λ„ˆλ¬΄ μž‘μŒ β†’ λ‹¨μœ„ 문제 μ˜μ‹¬ - H2 μ‹€νŒ¨: Singular matrix (98% survival rate β†’ variation μ—†μŒ) - NetCDF encoding error 발견 - Multicollinearity 심각 (founder_credibility μ™„μ „ μ„ ν˜•μ’…μ†) **Diagnostic 해석 (4 snapshots):** - DBλŠ” cumulative (420Kβ†’504K), "disappeared" 0.6-1.6%만 - LastFinancingDate에 미래 λ‚ μ§œ 포함 (2024, 2025) β†’ **data leakage μœ„ν—˜** - VC-backed 34% recent funding rate (24mo window) - λ‹¨μˆœ "exists in both" = μ˜λ―Έμ—†μŒ **이둠적 μž¬ν•΄μ„ (Scott/Charlie λŒ€ν™”):** - **핡심**: "Precise promisers disappoint" = Series B λͺ» λ°›μŒ - Yet Ming (option provider) vs Bob Langer (reputation) λŒ€λΉ„ - Timeline: Pitch β†’ Series A β†’ Series B outcome - H2 DVλŠ” **Series B+ 달성 μ—¬λΆ€** (not just activity) **Survival μ •μ˜ ν™•μ •:** - Main H2: Series B+ success (이둠 λΆ€ν•©) - Robustness: Activity-based (LastFinancingDate recency) - At-risk cohort: VC-backed, Seed/Series A at baseline - Expected rate: 25-35% **Pooling Strategy (Q1):** - Option B: Panel (3 cohorts) - 20211201β†’20230501 (17mo) - 20220101β†’20230501 (16mo) - 20220501β†’20230501 (12mo) - Primary: Cohort 1 (κ°€μž₯ κΈ΄ window) - Robustness: Full panel **Deal Type ν•„λ“œ 이해:** - LastFinancingDealType (주거래), DealType2/3 (λΆ€κ°€νŠΉμ„±), DealClass (투자자) - PE/M&A μƒ˜ν”Œ 확인 β†’ VC 필터링 ν•„μˆ˜ **ChatGPT Validation μ€€λΉ„:** - M&A μ½”λ”© λ…ΌμŸ (success exit vs distress sale) - Entrepreneurship expert perspective μš”μ²­ ν”„λ‘¬ν”„νŠΈ μž‘μ„± - μ°½μ—… μƒνƒœκ³„ impact κ°•μ‘° --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: - Claude Code의 25% ν™•λ₯  fix 진단 μ™„λ£Œ - Scott ν”„λ ˆμž„μ›Œν¬ 기반 survival μ •μ˜ 확립 - Data leakage μœ„ν—˜ 식별 - Panel μ•„ν‚€ν…μ²˜ 섀계 **내일 μš°μ„ μˆœμœ„**: 1. ChatGPT validation κ²°κ³Ό λ°›κΈ° 2. Data leakage 제거 μ½”λ“œ μž‘μ„± 3. VC-backed 필터링 검증 4. Week 1 deliverable μ€€λΉ„ (PDF with working H1, H2 design) **λ―Έν•΄κ²° 이슈**: - M&A exit μ½”λ”© κΈ°μ€€ (ChatGPT λ‹΅λ³€ λŒ€κΈ°) - H1 κ³„μˆ˜ 크기 문제 (λ‹¨μœ„ 확인 ν•„μš”) - founder_credibility λ³€μˆ˜ 제거 μ—¬λΆ€ --- **qmd μ €μž₯ ν•­λͺ© μΆ”κ°€:** 1️⃣ Related Work (Yet Ming/Bob Langer motivation) 2️⃣ M&A coding decision (success exit vs distress sale) 3️⃣ **Survival Coding Strategy (Day 7)** ```python # At-risk: VC-backed, Seed/Series A at baseline survival = 1 if LastFinancingDealType in ['Series B', 'Series C', 'Series D+'] survival = 0 if 'Out of Business' OR still Seed/Series A # M&A coding TBD (ChatGPT validation pending) ``` 4️⃣ **Critical Data Issues Identified** - LastFinancingDate future dates β†’ filter by snapshot_date - Cumulative DB β†’ simple existence = 98% survival - Need VC filter: CompanyFinancingStatus = 'Venture Capital-Backed' ## πŸ“ˆ Week 1 회고 (10.21-10.27) **λͺ©ν‘œ**: Table 1, 2 **달성**: [⏳] Table 1 β†’ Pipeline ꡬ좕 μ™„λ£Œ, μ‹€ν–‰ λŒ€κΈ° [⏳] Table 2 β†’ H2 섀계 μˆ˜μ • 쀑 (survival μž¬μ •μ˜) **잘된 점**: - **Pipeline 인프라 μ™„μ„±** ([Day 2](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-2---20251022-%EC%88%98), [Day 3](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-3---20251023-%EB%AA%A9)): Scripts 01-05 μž‘μ„± + xarray λ¦¬νŒ©ν„° + μžλ™ 체크포인트둜 μž¬μ‹€ν–‰ κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ ꡬ쑰 확립 - **λŒ€μš©λŸ‰ 데이터 처리** ([Day 2](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-2---20251022-%EC%88%98)): 651MB company_master.csv 생성 (420K+ firms, AI/ML 필터링) - **이둠-데이터 μ •ν•©μ„±** ([Day 7](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-7---20251027-%EC%9B%94)): Scott의 "precise promisers disappoint" ν”„λ ˆμž„μ›Œν¬λ₯Ό Series B progression DV둜 operationalize - **μ‘°κΈ° 문제 발견** ([Day 7](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-7---20251027-%EC%9B%94)): 98% survival (singular matrix), future date leakage, cumulative DB ꡬ쑰 νŒŒμ•…μœΌλ‘œ Week 2 λ‚­λΉ„ λ°©μ§€ **μ–΄λ €μ› λ˜ 점**: - **Deal matching μ‹€νŒ¨** ([Day 4](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-4---20251024-%EA%B8%88)): deal_panel.csv 110B (거의 빈 파일), VCRound field λˆ„λ½μœΌλ‘œ Series A/B 식별 λΆˆκ°€ - **DV 섀계 착였** ([Day 7](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-7---20251027-%EC%9B%94)): λ‹¨μˆœ "쑴재 μ—¬λΆ€" μΈ‘μ •μœΌλ‘œ 98% survival β†’ H2 logit μ‹€νŒ¨, ChatGPT validation 톡해 12-15% base rate둜 μž¬μ„€κ³„ ν•„μš” 확인 - **데이터 ν’ˆμ§ˆ** ([Day 7](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-7---20251027-%EC%9B%94)): LastFinancingDate에 2024-2025 미래 λ‚ μ§œ 포함 β†’ as-of capping μ—†μ΄λŠ” time leakage λΆˆκ°€ν”Ό **배운 것**: - **Cumulative DB β‰  Panel**: PitchBook은 420Kβ†’504K μ„±μž₯ν•˜λŠ” λˆ„μ  DBλΌμ„œ "μ–‘μͺ½ snapshot 쑴재"λŠ” ν™œλ™μ„± μ•„λ‹Œ μΆ”μ μƒνƒœλ§Œ 의미. μ§„μ§œ survival은 νŽ€λ”© progression으둜 μΈ‘μ •ν•΄μ•Ό 함 ([Day 7](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-7---20251027-%EC%9B%94)) - **Theory drives operationalization**: H2 "over-commit β†’ can't adapt β†’ miss B gate"λŠ” Series B+ 도달 μ—¬λΆ€λ‘œ μΈ‘μ •λ˜μ–΄μ•Ό ν•˜λ©°, λ‹¨μˆœ 생쑴/ν™œλ™μ€ mechanism 포착 λͺ»ν•¨ ([Day 7](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-7---20251027-%EC%9B%94)) - **Base rate calibration**: Median Aβ†’B = 28-31κ°œμ›”μ΄λ―€λ‘œ 17κ°œμ›” windowλŠ” 12-15% μ „ν™˜λ§Œ 포착 (κ³Όκ±° 25-35% μ˜ˆμƒμ€ κ³ΌλŒ€). Logit μˆ˜λ ΄μ— μΆ©λΆ„ν•˜λ‚˜ effect size 해석 주의 ν•„μš” ([Day 7](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-7---20251027-%EC%9B%94)) - **Competing risk handling**: M&AλŠ” 성곡/μ‹€νŒ¨ ꡬ뢄 λΆˆκ°€ν•˜λ―€λ‘œ primaryμ—μ„œ censor, robustnessμ—μ„œ μƒν•œ(=1)/ν•˜ν•œ(=0) μ²˜λ¦¬κ°€ publication standard ([Day 7](https://claude.ai/chat/9e3023ab-8f5e-4a3b-a946-3874cb7e4cec#%F0%9F%97%93%EF%B8%8F-day-7---20251027-%EC%9B%94)) **λ‹€μŒ μ£Ό κ³„νš**: 1. Data leakage 제거 (as-of capping) 2. Series A cohort ν•„ν„° + DV μž¬κ΅¬ν˜„ (12-15% 검증) 3. H2 primary + robustness (M&A bounds) μ‹€ν–‰ 4. Table 1, 2 μ™„μ„± + Week 1 deliverable PDF --- [[W1-싀증]] with link to code and spec [[W1-tech_spec]] # πŸ“… Week 2: μ μ‹œ(適時) - Model 2 + Plots **λͺ©ν‘œ**: Table 3, Figure 1, 2 μ™„μ„± --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 8 - 2025.10.28 (ν™”) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] [[10개 λ‘œκΉ…ν•­λͺ©κ³Ό μ°Έκ³ λ¬Έν—Œ μ—°κ²°]] - [ ] qmd에 μΆ”κ°€ - [ ] Later success ~ Vagueness + Early funding --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 #### πŸ™ 利 (ChatGPT) ``` μž‘μ—…: Logistic regression μ΄ˆμ•ˆ μ‚°μΆœ: 1_利_λΉ λ₯Έμ‹€ν–‰/day8_model2.py ``` --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 9, 10.29 수)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 9 - 2025.10.29 (수) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Model 2 정ꡐ화 - [ ] ν†΅μ œλ³€μˆ˜ μΆ”κ°€ --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 10, 10.30 λͺ©)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 10 - 2025.10.30 (λͺ©) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Table 3 생성 - [ ] Model 2 κ²°κ³Ό ν™•μ • --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 11, 10.31 금)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 11 - 2025.10.31 (금) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Figure 1 생성 (Vagueness β†’ Early funding) - [ ] μ‹œκ°ν™” ν’ˆμ§ˆ κ°œμ„  --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 12, 11.1 ν† )**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 12 - 2025.11.01 (ν† ) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Figure 2 생성 (Vagueness β†’ Later success) - [ ] μ‹œκ°ν™” ν’ˆμ§ˆ κ°œμ„  --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 13, 11.2 일)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 13 - 2025.11.02 (일) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Robustness checks (sector effects) - [ ] λŒ€μ•ˆ vagueness measures --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 14, 11.3 μ›”)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 14 - 2025.11.03 (μ›”) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Week 2 정리 - [ ] λͺ¨λ“  μ‚°μΆœλ¬Ό μ΅œμ’… 확인 --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **Week 2 μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **λ‹€μŒ μ£Ό κ³„νš**: Paper μž‘μ„± --- ## πŸ“ˆ Week 2 회고 (10.28-11.03) **λͺ©ν‘œ**: Table 3, Figure 1, 2 **달성**: [ ] Table 3 β†’ `empirics/output/table3.csv` [ ] Figure 1 β†’ `empirics/output/figure1.png` [ ] Figure 2 β†’ `empirics/output/figure2.png` **잘된 점**: - ___________ **μ–΄λ €μ› λ˜ 점**: - ___________ **λ‹€μŒ μ£Ό κ³„νš**: - Paper 초고 μž‘μ„± - Introduction, Theory, Method, Results --- # πŸ“… Week 3: 적인(適人) - Paper **λͺ©ν‘œ**: Paper μ™„μ„± 및 제좜 --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 15 - 2025.11.04 (ν™”) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Abstract (150 words) - [ ] Introduction μ΄ˆμ•ˆ --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 #### πŸ™ 利 (ChatGPT) ``` μž‘μ—…: Introduction μ΄ˆμ•ˆ μ‚°μΆœ: drafts/introduction_v1.md ``` #### πŸ… 思 (Claude) ``` μž‘μ—…: Introduction ꡬ쑰화 μ‚°μΆœ: drafts/introduction_v2.md ``` --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 16, 11.5 수)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 16 - 2025.11.05 (수) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Theory section - [ ] OIL framework μ„€λͺ… --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 17, 11.6 λͺ©)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 17 - 2025.11.06 (λͺ©) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Method section - [ ] Data & Models μ„€λͺ… --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 18, 11.7 금)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 18 - 2025.11.07 (금) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Results section - [ ] Tables & Figures μ‚½μž… --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 19, 11.8 ν† )**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 19 - 2025.11.08 (ν† ) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] Discussion - [ ] Conclusion --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 20, 11.9 일)**: ___________ --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 20 - 2025.11.09 (일) ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] 전체 ꡐ정 - [ ] μ°Έκ³ λ¬Έν—Œ 정리 --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 #### 🐒 ηΎ© (Gemini) ``` μž‘μ—…: 전체 λ…Όλ¬Έ 논리 검증 μ‚°μΆœ: 3_ηΎ©_검증/day20_paper_review.md ``` --- ### πŸŒ™ 저녁 회고 **μ™„λ£Œ**: ___________ **내일 (Day 21, 11.10 μ›”)**: μ΅œμ’… 제좜! --- ## πŸ—“οΈ Day 21 - 2025.11.10 (μ›”) πŸŽ‰ ### πŸŒ… μ•„μΉ¨ κ³„νš **였늘의 λͺ©ν‘œ**: - [ ] μ΅œμ’… κ²€ν†  - [ ] PDF 생성 - [ ] Charlie와 Scottμ—κ²Œ 제좜 πŸ’Œ --- ### πŸ’Ό μž‘μ—… 둜그 --- ### πŸŒ™ μ΅œμ’… 승리 πŸ† **제좜 μ™„λ£Œ**: ___:___ **μ΅œμ’… μ‚°μΆœλ¬Ό**: - βœ… Table 1, 2, 3 - βœ… Figure 1, 2 - βœ… Paper draft **3μ£Ό 총평**: - μˆœν™˜ 횟수: ___회 - 총 μž‘μ—… μ‹œκ°„: ___μ‹œκ°„ - κ°€μž₯ 큰 배움: ___________ - κ°€μž₯ μ–΄λ €μ› λ˜ 것: ___________ - Charlie/Scott ν”Όλ“œλ°±: ___________ --- ## πŸ“ˆ Week 3 회고 (11.04-11.10) **λͺ©ν‘œ**: Paper μ™„μ„± **달성**: [ ] Paper draft β†’ `drafts/paper_final.pdf` **잘된 점**: - ___________ **μ–΄λ €μ› λ˜ 점**: - ___________ **μ΅œμ’… μ„±μ·¨**: - ___________ --- ## πŸ† λͺ…λŸ‰ν•΄μ „ μ’…μ „ **"μ‹ μ—κ²ŒλŠ” 아직 12μ²™μ˜ λ°°κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€"** **μš°λ¦¬λŠ” ν•΄λƒˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.** βš”οΈ --- **μ‹œμž‘**: 2025.10.21 (ν™”) **μ™„λ£Œ**: 2025.11.10 (μ›”) **κΈ°κ°„**: 21일 (3μ£Ό) **εΏ…ζ­»ε½η”Ÿ, εΏ…η”Ÿε½ζ­»**