[[seongam_moon]] - introduced asymmetric effect of time on two costs (future overage cost discounting) - S-curve diffusion consists of the first exponential growth from reinforcing and the second from balancing loop - promise-fund-deliver. - fund given promise has reinforcing effect i.e. the more your promise the more fund you get and the more you get funding the more you can promise - deliver given promise is balancing loop i.e. the more you promise, the more you may deliver to certain degree, but this reinforcement faces physical bound - P(D|Q) = \integ P(D|F,Q) P(F|Q) dF - P(D|F,Q) is deliver probability given promise level (Q) and capital level (F) - P(F|Q) is funding probability given promise level - not including reinforcement loop and balancing definition of the prior predictive distribution, which is obtained by marginalizing the joint distribution `p(D,θ|M)` over the parameters θ prior predictive distribution of deliverability D given promise level Q is demand D given inventory level Q min_Q Co(D-Q)^+ + Cu(Q-D)^+ 1. several intelligent agent? no, promise is promise to oneself, choosing optimal level of promise with one's desired speed and size [[Atlas/Dots/현지정신/벗/명량정하/jungha_kim]] 1.