# Believed Desire I want to live an “ergodic" life, where each day’s actions consistently reflect my core purpose rather than short-term swings in motivation. I see deep understanding—truly grasping why things work—as the bedrock of meaningful learning. By staying focused on the principles behind success, rather than just imitating surface behaviors, I ensure that my long-term vision remains steady even amidst unpredictable uncertainties, such as changing market conditions or shifting personal challenges. # Desired Belief To guide decisions effectively, I aim to use a “Bayesian calibrated choice” process that integrates my core desires with my best current knowledge. This means clarifying the right “state variables” to track (like market understanding, skill levels, and goals) and updating them based on immediate feedback rather than clinging to past wins or losses. Each day, I assess what I believe, what I want to achieve, and what I’m capable of now—ensuring that every choice is rooted in a present-focused framework that remains flexible and aligned with my higher aims. # Ergodic and Markovian (My Stock-and-Flow Perspective, with SBC) From this vantage point, _ergodic_ is the “-ed” (the stable, long-term property aligning daily actions with ultimate goals), and _Markovian_ is the “-ing” (the ongoing mechanism that updates decisions based only on the present state). Simulation-based calibration (SBC) helps operationalize this by repeatedly simulating parameters from the prior, generating data, and checking coverage so that posterior updates remain coherently tied to the underlying truth. **SBC’s symmetry creation ensures that posterior inferences truly reflect the current state, simplifying the complexity of verifying each new decision step. This Markovian approach to updating beliefs in turn supports a path toward an ergodic state, where time-averaged behavior aligns with the broader vision.** ![[aperiodicity.svg]] Suggested Edits for the future 4. Replace "such as changing market conditions or shifting personal challenges" with specific examples of reducible vs. irreducible uncertainty 5. Add a bridging sentence in paragraph 2: "This integration requires..." 6. Consider moving the technical SBC details to a separate note and focusing on its intuitive meaning 7. include below spirit 1. if you were asked to divide the three paragraphs in # 📝draft to # Believed Desire and # Desired belief, what'd it be? 2. if my desired state is ergodicity, explain how desiring markovian can helpful decision rule to converge to that state.