# AV Sandbox User Manual This dashboard helps you explore how strategic decisions affect Motional's 10-year trajectory. Move sliders, watch outcomes change. --- ## Getting Started Open `DASHBOARD_av_sandbox.html` in Chrome. You'll see four charts showing Cost, Safety, Trust, and Profit over time. To run your first scenario, drag the **ML Accuracy** slider from 99.5% to 99.9%. All four charts update instantly. The solid line shows your scenario; the dashed line shows the baseline for comparison. --- ## The Twelve Levers You control twelve variables, organized into three chains: ``` Production (Build) ──▶ Delivery (Operate) ──▶ Market (Results) │ │ │ ▼ ▼ ▼ Tech Capability Miles Driven CPM, NPV (STOCK) (FLOW) (OUTCOME) ``` --- ### Production Chain: "What we build" | Lever | Description | Impact | |:---|:---|:---| | **Sensor Cost** | Price of LiDAR/cameras per vehicle | Lower → cheaper vehicles | | **ML Accuracy** | % situations handled without human help | Higher → fewer interventions | | **Compute Power** | Onboard processing capability | Higher → faster decisions | | **Sim-Real Gap** | Fidelity between simulation and reality | Lower → faster validation | **Stock Output**: Tech Capability — the foundation for safe autonomous driving. --- ### Delivery Chain: "How we operate" | Lever | Description | Impact | |:---|:---|:---| | **Fleet Size** | Number of deployed vehicles | More → greater scale | | **Utilization** | Fraction of day vehicles operate | Higher → more revenue/vehicle | | **Remote Assist** | Human teleoperator support rate | Lower → less cost, more autonomy | | **ODD Coverage** | Operational Design Domain scope | Wider → more serviceable conditions | **Flow Output**: Miles Driven — the experience that feeds learning loops. --- ### Market Chain: "What results" | Lever | Description | Impact | |:---|:---|:---| | **Fare Premium** | Price vs. Uber/Lyft | Higher → more revenue/ride | | **Regulatory States** | Number of approved jurisdictions | More → larger legal market | | **Cities Expansion** | Markets with commercial service | More → larger addressable market | | **Trust Investment** | Spending on safety communication | Higher → faster trust building | **Outcome Output**: CPM (Cost per Mile), NPV (Net Present Value) --- ## Reading the Dashboard The **KPI bar** at the top shows five numbers: Cost per Mile, Safety (miles between failures), Public Trust, Break-even Year, and which feedback loop currently dominates the system. The **Three-Chain Balance** bar shows each chain's capability as a percentage. The lowest bar is your bottleneck — the constraint limiting overall performance. Invest there first. The **four charts** show 10-year projections. Your scenario appears as a solid line; the baseline appears dashed. Where the Profit line crosses zero is your break-even year. --- ## Four Tabs **Dashboard** is for scenario exploration. Change sliders and see what happens. **CLD** shows how variables connect through feedback loops. Use this when you want to understand why the system behaves a certain way. **Sensitivity** shows which lever has the biggest impact on outcomes. Use this to prioritize investment. **Compare** shows how Motional's architecture compares to Waymo, Mobileye, and Tesla. --- ## Three Things to Try **1. Find your bottleneck.** Look at the Three-Chain Balance bar. The chain with the lowest percentage is constraining your growth. Common patterns: - Production-limited: Invest in Sim-Real Gap reduction - Delivery-limited: Expand ODD Coverage or reduce Remote Assist dependency - Market-limited: Prioritize Regulatory States over Cities Expansion **2. Test a what-if.** Try these high-impact experiments: - Drag **Sim-Real Gap** down → watch Safety accelerate (R1 loop) - Increase **Trust Investment** → watch Market chain unlock (R2 loop) - Reduce **Remote Assist** → watch CPM drop but Safety risk rise (B1 tradeoff) **3. Trace Stock-Flow-Outcome.** ``` Tech Capability (Stock) → Miles Driven (Flow) → CPM, NPV (Outcome) ``` Ask: Which lever improves the Stock? Which accelerates the Flow? Which optimizes the Outcome? --- ## Contact Angie Moon — [email protected]